NFL Week 12 Free Premium Play 11/25: Tennessee Titans @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee  at Jacksonville

Play: Single Dime Play on Over 44,5

Comments: NFL Week 12 - 229 Tennessee Titans @ 230 Jacksonville Jaguars Projected Line: 48 points Most of the recent games between these two teams have been low scoring affairs. However, these two teams are clearly defending worse than they were over the past few seasons and so, I expect this game to actually have a good offensive production. Jake Locker came back very well in Miami with a good performance and he is coming from a bye week fully ready to pound the Jaguars' defense that is very far from the top 5 defense they were last season. We are talking about a pass defense that is just #24 in completion percentage allowed, #24 in yards allowed per attempt, #22 in QB rating allowed and #27 in third down conversion allowed, so Jacksonville's secondary is very far from being impressive this season. Therefore, I expect Jake Locker to explore that today. Chris Johnson has been in much better form lately and he seems to be back at a decent level. Tennessee is #5 in the league on rushing yards per carry with 4.8 yards and against an average Jaguars' run defense (#16 with 4.2 yards allowed per carry), I expect Chris Johnson to be able to have another positive game today. On the other hand, with Blaine Gabbert out for the season, Chad Henne is now the starting quarterback and I believe he is actually an upgrade over Gabbert. Henne knows that if he plays well in the following games, he will be the Jags' starting quarterback next season and the truth is that he played very well in Houston last week. He has a very favorable matchup over the terrible Titans secondary today that is dead last in completion percentage allowed, #27 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #29 in QB rating allowed and #28 in third down conversion allowed. Therefore, I believe Chad Henne should have a good game today, with the help of rookie WR Justin Blackmon, who is certainly very confident right now, after his excellent performance last week in Houston. Also WR Cecil Shorts has been in very good form this season, so I believe Chad Henne with the help of two in-form receivers will pound the Titans' secondary today. I expect a rested Tennessee to pound Jacksonville's defense with both their passing and running game, while Jacksonville should also put some points on the board with a very motivated Chad Henne having two in-form receivers to pound the Titans' poor secondary. Therefore, I see a lot of value on this relatively low totals line and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 229/230 Over 44,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes