Saturday, November 24, 2012

NBA Premium Play 11/23: New York Knicks @ Houston Rockets


NBA - 515 New York Knicks @ 516 Houston Rockets

Projected Line: NY Knicks by 8 points

It's obvious that this game has the Jeremy Lin factor all around it. Some Knicks players didn't like how the offseason soap opera went, besides the fact that both Raymond Felton and Jason Kidd will want to show tonight that they are still better than Jeremy Lin. So, this is a highly motivational game for both the Knicks and Jeremy Lin.

But the truth is that the Rockets are a good matchup for the Knicks. They are coming from a loss at Dallas on a back to back game and the truth is that their two losses this season were on back to back games! Houston's offense depends a lot from James Harden and they are indeed very dependent from their pick and roll ball handler plays! With a very high volume on this kind of play, the truth is that Houston is ranked #8 on efficiency! But the Knicks' defense is #2 on defending pick and roll ball handler plays, something normal as they have Tyson Chandler, one of the best big men in defending this kind of plays. He will be able to offer extra help today, as Omer Asik will be his matchup tonight and he isn't a good offensive player.

With James Harden limited by the Knicks' good defense, Houston's offense is very limited in options. They are coming from a nice win against Chicago on their last game due to the Bulls' poor offense down the stretch, while James Harden played very well by being the key factor of that game with 8-14 FG and 28 points. On the other hand, the Knicks' offense is #1 in the league with a great ball movement due to a lot of screens. Houston's defense has been struggling in stopping the opposing perimeter shooting, as they are #25 in the league with 37% 3pts allowed, so I believe the fired up Knicks will have an easy win tonight and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 515 New York Knicks (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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