Saturday, November 24, 2012

NBA Premium Play 11/23: Los Angeles Clippers @ Brooklyn Nets


NBA - 507 Los Angeles Clippers @ 508 Brooklyn Nets

Projected Lines: 188 points | LA Clippers by 6 points

***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
Brooklyn is coming from a loss at Golden State, where they dominated the first quarter, but then got outplayed for the rest of the game by a good combination of inside offense from David Lee and Carl Landry with good help from the backcourt with Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry having good games as well. The Nets had a clear inside edge with 21-23 FG at the rim and 4-6 FG from 3-9 feet, but as soon as the Warriors made some adjustments on their defense, Brooklyn's jump shooting was a disaster on a bad physical spot for them with 5-17 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-23 3pts!

The Clippers are coming from a road loss in overtime against Oklahoma City, on a game where they had to put Matt Barnes defending Kevin Durant the whole game, as both Caron Butler and Grant Hill were unable to play. Their interior game with DeAndre Jordan and Blake Griffin created big problems to the Thunder on the inside, but with Thabo Sefolosha defending Chris Paul extremely well, the Clippers were unable to win the game. However, they fought a lot and showed great character by being very aggressive down the stretch, as they went to the line 11 times in the fourth quarter! The Clippers managed to be competitive on this game also due to their rebounding skills and good inside production with 25-33 FG at the rim! They looked very well on post ups, cuts, offensive rebounds and transitions, while they struggled on long range with 4-23 FG from 16-23 feet. Chris Paul's struggles and Oklahoma City's very good perimeter defense were vital for the Clippers' long range shooting struggles.

For tonight, both teams will be on tough spots, as Brooklyn is coming from a road trip and they had just one day off to travel from Oakland to Brooklyn, while the Clippers are coming from a tough game against the Thunder that ended just on overtime. The Nets continue struggling down the stretch, as they have no idea to do with the ball barring some forced isolation plays. Both teams are generally good on offense near the basket, but the Clippers have a much better rim defense than the Nets. Brooklyn may defend well pick and rolls, but we have a nice matchup for the Clippers' frontcourt tonight. Also the superior perimeter defense will be vital for the LA team, besides the fact that they have a much better team chemistry than the Nets, who are still trying to find themselves on the court. The record doesn't show that, but that's due to their easy schedule until now, as every time they face a top team with good chemistry, they get exposed. I expect this contest to be a relatively low scoring game, as both teams have some tools to limit their opponents' offense, however the Clippers are definitely the much better team right now. Therefore, I'll be taking both the Clippers in a Single Dime Play and the Under in a Double Dime Play tonight.

Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 195 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507 Los Angeles Clippers (-2,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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