NBA - 705 Indiana Pacers @ 706 Milwaukee Bucks
Projected Line: Milwaukee by 8 points
Toronto was coming from a triple overtime game against Indiana and they were still able to beat the Pacers on the road last night, even though Toronto scored just 5 points during the 4th quarter! This demonstrates how terrible the Pacers' offense really is right now. Indiana has been struggling on the perimeter due to their poor ball movement and that continued last night, with 2-19 FG from 16-23 feet and 5-15 3pts! That combined with a poor night of their inside game with 12-28 FG at the rim and 2-11 FG on post up plays resulted in a tragic offensive game for them, as the pick and rolls didn't work and they were only able to score via transition plays against a tired Raptors team.
Indiana doesn't have a good spot for tonight and considering their poor ball movement, combined with a poor outside shooting, they are just good on two areas that are related with their good frontcourt, as they are #6 on offensive rebound rate with 30.1% and 1.11 PPP (#12) and a good post up game with 0.88 PPP (#7). However, the Bucks are simply the best defensive rebounding team of the league with an 80.7% defensive rebound rate and #2 at defending the paint with just 34.3 ppg allowed, the result of a good job from coach Scott Skiles in using a good defensive frontcourt with Samuel Dalembert and especially Larry Sanders and Ekpe Udoh coming off the bench to protect the team's poor perimeter defense.
So, the Bucks will have a good defensive matchup tonight, while they also avoid Indiana's strongest parts of their defense: their interior defense, as they are #2 in sending the opposition to the FT line, while they are also #3 in defending the paint with 3.0 ppg allowed and #2 at defending at the rim. However, Milwaukee's offense is based on their perimeter game with Monta Ellis and Brandon Jennigns and then a good second unit that also likes to shoot from the perimeter.
With Indiana's frontcourt being limited on offense tonight, this will quickly get into a backcourt war and Milwaukee's backcourt is much better than Indiana's, therefore the Bucks should get an easy win in here and so, I'll be taking Milwaukee tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Milwaukee Bucks (-4) @ -110 / 1.91 on Betonline
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