NBA - 507 Memphis Grizzlies @ 508 Charlotte Bobcats
Projected Lines: 185 points | Memphis by 2 points
***SPLIT THE WAGER***
Memphis is coming from a great home win against the Knicks last night, even though the Knicks managed to have a good offensive game, with Raymond Felton shooting 8-16 FG! However, the Knicks' pick and roll ball handler game didn't work well with just 6-14 FG and 0.71 PPP, something that I expected as Memphis is a good defensive team against this kind of play. The Grizzlies had their game plan for this contest well prepared, as they refused to enter a shooting contest (just 12 spot up plays) and focused on post up plays, transitions and pick and roll ball handler plays! The Knicks' bad spot was well exploited by Memphis on this contest. Marc Gasol had a huge game while driving the Knicks frontcourt into a nervous breakdown, while Memphis completely outmuscled the Knicks during the third quarter.
But now it's Memphis that is on a bad spot for tonight. They will play their third game and in four nights, on a back to back spot as well, while facing the Bobcats on the road! Not only this is generally a poor spot for any team, the fact that Memphis is coming from three intense games against Miami, Oklahoma City and the NY Knicks only makes the spot even tougher for them! Therefore, I expect the Grizzlies to have a physical and mental letdown tonight.
Unlike what happened last night, I doubt the Grizzlies will be prepared to face Charlotte tonight. The Bobcats are far from being a good defensive team, but they are capable of causing problems to their opponents, if they aren't ready to face Charlotte, as coach Mike Dunlap is very creative on his defensive sets by using several types of zone defense. Charlotte will try to avoid as much as possible for the ball to end up in Marc Gasol or Zach Randolph down low, something that will inevitably give the Grizzlies space on the outside for the backcourt players to shoot. But the Bobcats will gladly live with that, as Memphis is a very powerful team on the paint, while they are quite inconsistent on the outside shooting. Besides that, Memphis has some problems of offensive identity, as they quickly lose their main focus in feeding the post and I believe this will happen tonight. Memphis will eventually make some in-game adjustments, but when that happens, Charlotte will already be competitive.
Charlotte's offense relies in their guards penetrating into the basket and Kemba Walker is now finally looking like a NBA level player. With Ramon Sessions also on the team's backcourt, Charlotte is having some good numbers in pick and rolls by being #7 in the league in pick and roll ball handler with 0.84 PPP and #3 in pick and roll roll man with 1.21 PPP! Michael Kidd-Gilchrist will have an interesting matchup with Rudy Gay, a player who is coming from matching up against Lebron James, Kevin Durant and Carmelo Anthony. Even though Kidd-Gilchrist doesn't possess the level of these three players, Gay is known for his tendency to play at his best on the tough matchups, but struggle through the easier matchups, something that is likely to happen tonight, especially on the very poor spot Memphis is facing tonight.
Memphis has a good backcourt defense, but I still like Charlotte's good spot for tonight. I believe the Bobcats will be able to have a very positive start of the game by completely messing up with Memphis' offense. As I believe the Grizzlies will struggle on offense tonight, while their good backcourt defense should be able to limit the Bobcats' guards, I expect this contest to become a low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking both Charlotte and the Under in here.
NOTE: Memphis is a huge public team tonight, so don't be a hurry to bet on them tonight. If you can, wait for a better line.
Pick: 1 unit on 508 Charlotte Bobcats HALFTIME ML @ +155 /2.55 on 5Dimes
Pick: 2 units on 508 Charlotte Bobcats (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bovada
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 507/508 Under 191 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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