Projected Line: 189 points
***DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
This will be an exciting game by putting head to head two top teams in the West Conference, where both defenses will have considerable edges on this matchup. Memphis has been amazing in both ends of the floor so far on this season. On offense, they are committing a low number of turnovers (#7 with a 14.4 TO/rate%), they have been crushing on the offensive rebounds (#3 with a 31.4% offensive rebound rate) and in terms of mysynergy analysis, they are a top team in pick and roll ball handler, with Mike Conley playing very well, they are #9 in post up plays (with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph) and they are also #3 on cuts due to their good dynamic on the frontcourt.
These have been the strengths of the Grizzlies' offense this season, but Oklahoma City has the tools on defense to counter this kind of offense. They are #7 in defensive rebounds with 75.8% on defensive rebound rate, they are #7 on pick and roll ball handler defense, they are #1 on post up defense and they are also #1 on cuts defense! They have exactly the right tools to stop Memphis tonight! The Grizzlies are coming from a big win against Miami, where the Heat were able to limit their frontcourt production, as Memphis shot 15-31 FG at the rim and 4-8 FG from 3-9 feet, while Marc Gasol shot just 1-6 FG and Memphis shot just 1-9 FG on post up plays! The problem was that Miami gave a lot of space on the perimeter and the Grizzlies, who were just #29 on spot up plays, were red hot from the outside with 14-24 3pts! That won't happen tonight against the Thunder, as Serge Ibaka, Kendrick Perkins and Nick Collison form a very good frontcourt defense and they won't need help from the backcourt to defend tonight, so the Grizzlies won't have a lot of space in the perimeter like they had last Sunday against Miami.
On the other side, we all know that Oklahoma City has Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant, with the Thunder being #2 on the league in FT attempts. However, Memphis has been amazing on their perimeter defense, as they showed against Miami. Mike Conley and Rudy Gay will make sure that Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant won't have an easy game on offense tonight.
I expect this game to be quite physical, with almost every shot being contested, something that should turn this game into a low scoring one. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here on a Double Dime Play!
Pick: 4 units (Double Dime Play) on 709/710 Under 195,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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