NBA - 503 Denver Nuggets @ 504 Golden State Warriors
Projected Line: 196 points
This will be the third game between these two teams, with Denver having won the first two games. On the last game between these two teams, Denver had 18 PF, while Golden State had 30(!), with Denver being also very aggressive with 58 points in the paint and shooting 25-37 FG at the rim. Golden State is being a defensive rebounding team, with a good size on the inside and even a good rim defense. In that game, Kenneth Faried shot 4-8 FG, Kostas Koufos 1-3 FG and JaVale McGee 2-7 FG, while Denver grabbed "just" 11 offensive rebounds. The Warriors were able to limit the Nuggets' frontcourt, but they struggled in stopping the Nuggets' backcourt. The problem wasn't the outside shooting, but the fact that Denver's backcourt players would penetrate and shoot at the rim with ease, as Andre Iguodala shot 5-5 FG at the rim, Ty Lawson 4-5 FG and Danilo Gallinari 6-8 FG. This was due to a terrible game from Stephen Curry, while Harrison Barnes played just 15 minutes due to foul trouble. With Golden State grabbing the defensive boards and with them being a tough defense on the inside, they should be able to cause problems to the Nuggets' offense.
On the other side, after a good period, Denver's defense is coming from a poor game at Utah, on a back to back spot. The Nuggets have been protecting very well the paint, but at the expense of having a bad spot up defense. This is why Utah crushed them with 11-22 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-22 3pts! Even though Golden State has Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson on the backcourt, the truth is that they are just #24 on 3pts shooting with 32.5%! Their offensive strength has been their frontcourt, but against the Nuggets' good interior defense, it will be tough for them to have a good frontcourt production tonight.
I expect Golden State to be very aggressive on defense, while Denver's defense is a tough matchup for the Warriors' offense, therefore I believe this game is going Under the total posted tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Under 200 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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