NBA - 515 Los Angeles Clippers @ 516 Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected Line: Oklahoma City by 8 points
The Clippers are now #2 in the league in defensive rates and mysynergy have them at #1! They are excellent in forcing turnovers to their opponents, as they are #2 in opponent turnover rate with 18.3%, but this aggressiveness also makes them getting outplayed on double penetrations from the guards that expose them on defense as well. This is why their last loss was against the lowly Cavaliers, with Kyrie Irving dribbling and managing good looks for the rest of the team on the outside, with Cleveland shooting 14-29 3pts, while Irving had 24 points and 10 assists. It's not a surprise that the Clippers are then #20 at defending cuts, #20 on defending off screens and #23 on defending pick and roll ball handler, as these three kind of plays are related to what I've just mentioned.
Oklahoma City has been having an easy schedule, but they are already won a new offensive identity, with Kevin Martin giving the team a good outside shooting. The Thunder have been the best team in the league in doing against the Clippers' defense has been struggling in defending! Oklahoma City is having a good ball movement, both Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant are being aggressive, but they are also passing well the ball and the Thunder have been having a lot of good looks on the outside on every game. On their last game against the Warriors, they combined 17 assists and 3 turnovers between Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook, a sign of how well the ball moved around the team. Oklahoma City is doing very well everything that is ball movement related, as they are #2 on spot ups, #3 on off screens and #2 on cuts, three areas where the Clippers struggle on defense. The Thunder also lead the league with 43.5% 3pts, with 49-107 (45.7%) 3pts and 47-105 (44.7%) from 16-23 feet on their last six games!
Caron Butler is questionable for tonight and against San Antonio, it was Matt Barnes who replaced him and did a good job. The Clippers had a good matchup, as they played against a team that had no healthy SF (Stephen Jackson got injured early on the game) and with that, the Clippers were able to play small ball with the Spurs. That won't happen today, as someone will have to defend Kevin Durant and with Caron Butler banged up, I doubt that Matt Barnes will do a good defensive job today, especially while being forced to play heavy minutes!
The Clippers' offense has been playing very well on their new uptempo style and they are #6 in transition plays, while also having great numbers on pick and roll ball handler due to Chris Paul and good numbers on post ups (#5) and spot ups (#5), but I believe they will struggle today against the Thunder. Oklahoma City with Kendrick Perkins and Serge Ibaka is #1 on defending post up plays with an incredible 0.7 PPP! Their defense this season isn't being as aggressive as usual and they are now one of the teams that less turnovers forces in order to avoid so much gambling on defense. Thanks to that they are now #6 on pick and roll ball handler defense with just 0.71 PPP and I believe they will limit the Clippers' offense quite well today-
The headlines for this game is that the Clippers have defeated every top team they've faced this season, while Oklahoma City is yet to beat a top team this season. Therefore, the Thunder will be fired up for tonight and against a good matchup for them, I expect Oklahoma City to have a nice win today. I'll be taking the Thunder tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 516 Oklahoma City Thunder (-3.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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