NBA - 513 Denver Nuggets @ 514 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: San Antonio by 3 points
These two teams have been a bit weird, as San Antonio is coming from an uncharacteristic meltdown at home in the fourth quarter against the Knicks, where both Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili struggled down the stretch, while Denver is coming from a home loss against Denver, where they weren't aggressive at all, with Ty Lawson shooting 0-7 FG and not going to the charity line even once!
I expect Denver to be a tough opponent tonight, especially due to their huge rebounding edge. Denver completely crushed Miami on the boards in their last game, with Kenneth Faried grabbing 11 offensive rebounds on his own, while Miami had just 5 offensive rebounds as a team. San Antonio is struggling on rebounding this season, as not only they are being a poor offensive rebounding team as usual, as they have been also a bad defensive rebound team as well by just #21 in the league while grabbing just 72.6% of the defensive rebounds. So, there will be a huge rebounding edge for the Nuggets on this contest.
The rebounding edge for Denver forces San Antonio to have a clear edge in shooting percentage to blowout the Nuggets tonight. But that doesn't seem likely to happen, as Denver became a good defensive team with Andre Iguodala and they are even #1 in the league in defending pick and roll ball handler plays, so San Antonio won't have an easy task on offense tonight, especially because Iguodala will defend Ginobili and with that, the Spurs will continue having their usual continuity problems on offense.
Ty Lawson played a horrible game last Thursday and so, we can expect a super aggressive Lawson to appear on this game.
"You lose your confidence, things go bad," Lawson said after the Nuggets' practice Friday, before the team boarded a charter in preparation for Saturday's game with the Spurs. "I've just got get back in the mind-set of just attack and be carefree."
Denver has been inconsistent on their outside shooting, but considering they will have an edge on the inside and on rebounds in tonight's game, even with a decent performance on the outside should be enough for them to remain competitive in here. San Antonio is just #25 on defending spot up plays and #25 in defending pick and roll ball handler plays, so it's really likely that Denver will be very competitive in tonight's game and so, I'll be taking the Nuggets in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 513 Denver Nuggets (+6) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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