NBA - 505 Orlando Magic @ 506 Atlanta Hawks
Projected Line: Atlanta by 14 points
Yesterday I took Orlando in their game in Orlando, but assuming that J.J. Redick would play, something that didn't happen, as he was a late scratch. If I had known that he wouldn't play, I wouldn't have taken Orlando in first place yesterday. The truth is that Orlando's offense needs badly a good production from Jameer Nelson, J.J. Redick and Glen Davis, so when the team misses one of these three players, they struggle and that was evident during the fourth quarter yesterday. With Jameer Nelson struggling on his shooting, the team needed another playmaker on the backcourt, but with J.J. Redick out, Toronto simply ran away from them down the stretch.
For today's game in Atlanta, J.J. Redick is probable for today and this is obviously good news for Orlando. Yesterday I mentioned that the Magic are very efficient on cuts and also with Jameer Nelson back, their pick and roll plays immediately got better as well. The cuts have a very important role on their offense's playbook and Orlando will have the easiest matchup on this kind of play, as Atlanta is #30 in the league in defending cuts by allowing a ridiculous 1.46 PPP!
The Hawks are coming from a road trip, so it's natural that they will relax a bit today against a lowly team. On the other side, Orlando's defend is far from being a good unit, as I've previously mentioned their problems on the interior defense due to the fact they have on the frontcourt the inexperienced Nikola Vucevic and the undersized Glen Davis. Detroit torched them by scoring 64 points in the paint and even yesterday, Andrea Bargnani, who has terrible this season, had a nice game with 7-19 FG, while Amir Johnson also shot 5-6 FG. For tonight, Al Horford will be a massive problem for the Magic's defense. Orlando has been committing a high number of turnovers and while Toronto didn't take advantage of them to score in transition as it isn't their philosophy, Atlanta is a top team in taking advantage of the opportunities to score in transition, as they are #6 in the league with 16.4 fast break points per game and #3 in transition plays with 1.30 PPP. On the other hand, Orlando's defense is allowing 1.21 PPP on transition plays.
Atlanta is now creating a new identity and with the backcourt is already well defined with Jeff Teague and Kyle Korver, with Louis Williams taking care of the ball possession when he enters on the court.
NOTE: I was going to take the Over on this contest, but breaking news: Jameer Nelson and J.J. Redick are questionable for tonight and as I wrote, without them at 100%, Orlando simply has no chances on their games. Therefore, I'll be taking Atlanta in here for a blowout win.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 506 Atlanta Hawks (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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