NBA Free Premium Play 11/16: Dallas Mavericks @ Indiana Pacers

Dallas  at Indiana

NBA - 705 Dallas Mavericks @ 706 Indiana Pacers Projected Line: Indiana by 5 points Indiana has been having a rough start of the season and I've been fading them a lot or taking the Under in games involving them due to their very poor offense. With so many poor results and performances, the linemakers had to adjust and made the Pacers a marginal favorite for this contest. But the truth is that Dallas is a terrific matchup for Indiana in both ends of the floor. The Pacers have been committing a lot of turnovers and they don't have a good ball movement that allows them to have quality shots from the outside, an area where they have been heavily struggling. Indiana has only been playing well on offense on transition plays and in scoring second chance points, as they are a great offensive rebounding team, while being also very effective on post up plays with David West and Roy Hibbert. The problem is that Hibbert hasn't been able to get the ball due to their poor ball movement. This fits well on Dallas' defense, who heavily struggles on the areas where Indiana's offense has been playing well. Dallas doesn't put pressure on the ball handler, so they don't force turnovers (#26 with just 14.2% on opponent turnovers per possession), while they have been struggling on rebounds due to the lack of athleticism from their frontcourt by being just #27 in defensive rebound rate with 69.2%! The Mavericks are also one of the worst teams in defending post up plays by allowing a whooping 1.06 PPP! They couldn't stop Nikola Pekovic (20 points in 28 minutes) until he sprained his ankle and even with Chris Kaman and Elton Brand on their last game, they couldn't stop Kevin Seraphin, who had 14 points on a 7-7 FG shooting night. So, this is a great opportunity for the Pacers to have a rare decent offensive game tonight! On the other hand, Dallas' offense has been very inconsistent, as their strengths are on the backcourt with Darren Collison and O.J. Mayo, who are red hot right now. So, it isn't a surprise that the Mavs offense is #4 on the league in spot up offense with 1.08 PPP and #10 in pick and roll plays due to this good dynamic. Dallas has been playing on a fast pace to take advantage of their quick guards, but the problem is that Indiana has been playing great defense this season! They are #4 on defensive rating, with their good frontcourt not needing help from the backcourt players, something that allows them to be a great perimeter defensive team as well, including being #1 in spot up defense by allowing just 0.71 PPP and #8 on transition defense! George Hill and Paul Goerge will be a tough matchup for Dallas' backcourt, while with the natural edge that Indiana's frontcourt will have over Dallas should allow the Pacers to have a comfortable win tonight. I'm taking Indiana in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 706 Indiana Pacers (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker