Sunday, November 18, 2012

NBA 11/18 Free Premium Play: Orlando Magic @ Toronto Raptors

  
Orlando  at Toronto 
NBA - 703 Orlando Magic @ 704 Toronto Raptors


Projected Line: Toronto by 1 point


Toronto is coming from a loss yesterday afternoon in Boston, where they got crushed by Boston's offense, who moved the ball excellently and made almost every long range shot: 5-10 FG from 10-15 feet, 14-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-15 3pts. The Raptors' starting lineup was terrible and it was Linas Kleiza, Terrence Ross and John Lucas III, who combined 35 points scored to keep the score a bit respectable.

On the other hand, Orlando is coming from a road win in Detroit last Friday. Jameer Nelson came back to the lineup and he was the key of that game with 13 points and 10 assists. The Magic got pounded by Detroit down low, as they allowed 26-39 FG at the rim and 5-8 FG from 3-9 feet. Even though the Pistons looked good on offensive, Orlando had the key of the game by grabbing 60% of the rebounds! Their cuts keep being very efficient with 12-17 and with Jameer Nelson back, their pick and roll plays immediately got better.

Toronto keep playing without Kyle Lowry and they are struggling to defend on the backcourt, especially cuts, as Andrea Bargnani and Jonas Valanciunas aren't good help defenders! Toronto is just #22 in defending cuts, #28 in defending transition plays and #28 in defending spot ups, so they are a good matchup for Orlando's offense. The Magic keep struggling on their inside defense, but Toronto is the #6 team in the league with less volume at the rim, so if the Raptors want to win this game, they will need to outplay Orlando in terms of outside shooting and right now the Magic with their dynamic offense is better than them with Jameer Nelson back. Therefore, I'll be taking Orlando in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703 Orlando Magic (+4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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