NBA - 707 Oklahoma City Thunder @ 708 New Orleans Hornets
Projected Line: 183 points
Oklahoma City is coming from a home loss against Memphis, where they just couldn't stop the Grizzlies offense that had an offensive rating of 117.13! The Thunder have been a stellar defensive team this season and on the other time they struggled on defense (against Atlanta), they quickly bounced back in the following game on a shutdown against Toronto, where they allowed the Raptors to score just 38 points in the first half, while having a defensive rating of 88.14! So, I expect the Thunder to be focused on defending tonight. New Orleans' offense has been very dependent from what PG Greivis Vasquez can do and if he plays well, their offense is fine, but if he struggles, the Hornets' offense also struggle big time.
On their last game against Houston, Vasquez had a great game, as he wasn't pressured and he was able to look like an All-Star, while having 24 points, 9 assists, 5 rebounds and just two turnovers! Houston had a passive defense and Jeremy Lin struggled on offense, so Vasquez didn't spend a lot of energy on defense and he could then perform well on the offensive end. That won't surely happen tonight, as he will matchup with Russell Westbrook, who will force Vasquez to work hard on defense and so, he will eventually be too tired to have a big offensive game tonight. The Hornets also need to grab offensive rebounds to perform well on offense, as they struggle on half court offense, however Oklahoma City is a good defensive rebounding team by being #6 in the league while grabbing 75.4% of the defensive rebounds. Therefore, I expect the Hornets to struggle on offense tonight.
However, the Hornets defense has also conditions to have a decent defensive game against the Thunder tonight. As we all know, Oklahoma City's offense is super aggressive and so, they are #2 in the league in FT rate. The problem for Oklahoma City tonight is that Monty Williams' defensive scheme is based on not fouling the opponents, as the Hornets are #2 in the league in opponent free throws attempted per offensive play! So, if Oklahoma City wants to score tonight, they will need to do it via set plays. Oklahoma City's offense is a top team on cuts and spot up plays, but New Orleans is a top 10 defensive team on this kind of plays.
This will surely be a half court game, as New Orleans' games generally are, and with both teams having the defensive tools to stop the opponents and with a projection of a low number of free throws for tonight, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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