Projected Line: Denver by 14 points
This should be an absolute no contest. Kansas City has been turning the ball over at a ridiculous rate this season and while facing one of the best defenses in the football today, I expect that to happen once again today. But that's just one of the problems that the Chiefs will have to face on their offense. Brady Quinn is back at the starting quarterback position, but he has been completely non-effective when he played this season and I really don't expect him to do anything against a quite decent pass defense of the Broncos, a team that also has the best pass rushing in the league to put a lot on pressure on Quinn today. The only positive aspect of the Chiefs' offense has been their running game, with Jamaal Charles having a decent season, however the Broncos are #2 in the league in rushing yards allowed per carry with just 3.5 yards allowed. Therefore, I don't see how the poor offense of Kansas City will be able to outplay a great Broncos defense that has a good pass defense, a great run defense and an excellent pass rush.
And then, on the other side of the football, there's Peyton Manning having one of the best seasons of his career. He has been excellent this season and he will absolutely pound the Chiefs secondary that is #31 in yards allowed per pass attempt and dead last in QB rating allowed this season. Denver has also a great offensive line to protect Manning and he will simply choose the right receiver to pound the Chiefs today over and over again. Willis McGahee is now in the injury reserve, but the Chiefs' run defense is also quite mediocre (#27 with 4.5 rushing yards allowed per carry), so I wouldn't be surprised if rookie Ronnie Hillman is able to give a good support to the Broncos passing game on the running department.
With Denver shutting down the Chiefs offense, while Peyton Manning pounds them on the other side of the field, I can only see a complete blowout of the Broncos today. I believe the line should have been posted at least at the two touchdowns mark, so I'll be taking Denver in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 227 Denver Broncos (-10) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 12 - 229 Tennessee Titans @ 230 Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Line: 48 points
Most of the recent games between these two teams have been low scoring affairs. However, these two teams are clearly defending worse than they were over the past few seasons and so, I expect this game to actually have a good offensive production. Jake Locker came back very well in Miami with a good performance and he is coming from a bye week fully ready to pound the Jaguars' defense that is very far from the top 5 defense they were last season. We are talking about a pass defense that is just #24 in completion percentage allowed, #24 in yards allowed per attempt, #22 in QB rating allowed and #27 in third down conversion allowed, so Jacksonville's secondary is very far from being impressive this season. Therefore, I expect Jake Locker to explore that today. Chris Johnson has been in much better form lately and he seems to be back at a decent level. Tennessee is #5 in the league on rushing yards per carry with 4.8 yards and against an average Jaguars' run defense (#16 with 4.2 yards allowed per carry), I expect Chris Johnson to be able to have another positive game today.
On the other hand, with Blaine Gabbert out for the season, Chad Henne is now the starting quarterback and I believe he is actually an upgrade over Gabbert. Henne knows that if he plays well in the following games, he will be the Jags' starting quarterback next season and the truth is that he played very well in Houston last week. He has a very favorable matchup over the terrible Titans secondary today that is dead last in completion percentage allowed, #27 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #29 in QB rating allowed and #28 in third down conversion allowed. Therefore, I believe Chad Henne should have a good game today, with the help of rookie WR Justin Blackmon, who is certainly very confident right now, after his excellent performance last week in Houston. Also WR Cecil Shorts has been in very good form this season, so I believe Chad Henne with the help of two in-form receivers will pound the Titans' secondary today.
I expect a rested Tennessee to pound Jacksonville's defense with both their passing and running game, while Jacksonville should also put some points on the board with a very motivated Chad Henne having two in-form receivers to pound the Titans' poor secondary. Therefore, I see a lot of value on this relatively low totals line and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 229/230 Over 44,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NFL Week 12 - 233 Atlanta Falcons @ 234 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Line: Tampa Bay by 3 points
Atlanta has been getting away with the win in several close games, but I believe they will definitely struggle today against a Buccaneers team that is carrying a lot of momentum right now. Matt Ryan is coming from a horrible game against Arizona, where he threw five interceptions, but it's clear that he has a good matchup today against a Buccaneers' secondary that is indeed quite poor. They are #26 in completion percentage allowed, #30 in yards allowed per pass attempt and #24 in third down conversion allowed. However, they have intercepted the opposing quarterback 15 times this season and they have a good red zone defense, as they are currently ranked #9 on this area. With Atlanta being just #12 on red zone offense, I wouldn't be surprised if the Buccaneers are able to force the Falcons to settle for field goals on some of their trips for the red zone today, especially when Tampa Bay has the best run defense in the league and Michael Turner has been an ultra disappointment this season.
But where I expect the Falcons to struggle big time today is on their defense. If Josh Freeman has a good matchup against the Falcons' secondary that is just average (but poor on the red zone, as they are ranked #21 on the red zone, while Tampa Bay is #4 on red zone offense), it's on the running game that the Buccaneers should be able to pound Atlanta the whole game. Rookie RB Doug Martin has been outstanding this season and thanks to him, Tampa Bay is #6 in the league on rushing yards per carry with 4.7 yards. They will be facing a very poor run defense of the Falcons that is allowing 5.0 rushing yards per carry (#30), so there is a complete mismatch in here favoring Tampa Bay and their running game, something that will also be very important to manage a lead down the stretch.
Atlanta has been winning a lot of close games this season due to their good play down the stretch, but Tampa Bay is carrying a lot of momentum right now and I believe the mismatch they will have on the running game will be enough for them to sneak a very good win over the Falcons, especially when their passing game is more assertive than Atlanta's (less interceptions, better red zone efficiency). Therefore, I'll be taking Tampa Bay today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 234 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
NFL Week 12 - 235 Seattle Seahawks @ 236 Miami Dolphins
Projected Line: 34 points
I don't see either team having a good offensive performance today. Seattle is coming from a bye week and while Russell Wilson has been having an interesting rookie season, he has been struggling on the road, as he is averaging a QB rating of 122.0 in home games, but just 65.8 on road games! Things won't get any easier for him today, as Miami has a good pass defense, as they are ranked #6 in completion percentage allowed, #13 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #9 in QB rating allowed, #4 in third down conversion allowed and #2 in red zone defense! So, it will up to Marshawn Lynch to carry the team's offense today, however the Seahawks' running game hasn't been very effective this season (#13 with 4.3 rushing yards per carry), while Miami's run defense has been good (even with some regression lately) with 3.8 yards allowed per carry (#4 in the league). So, I expect a tough game for Seattle's offense today.
But it won't be any easier for Miami's offense. Ryan Tannehill has been struggling and he will be facing a good and rested Seattle pass defense that is #7 in completion percentage allowed, #3 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #3 in QB rating allowed and #4 in red zone defense! The Seahawks' pass rush is also quite good and they will pressure Ryan Tannehill a lot as well. The problem for Miami is that their running game isn't any better, as they are just #28 in the league with 3.6 yards per carry. Seattle's run defense is average, but it is certainly good enough to handle the poorly effective running game of the Dolphins.
I believe both teams will definitely struggle on offense today, as their offenses aren't very good, while both defenses have the right tools to stop them. I expect a very low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 235/236 Under 38 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 12 - 241 St Louis Rams @ 242 Arizona Cardinals
Projected Line: 33 points
This is kind of game where I don't see how points will actually be scored today. Arizona will start their rookie Ryan Lindley, who is normally their third quarterback. He played most of last week's game in Atlanta, after John Skelton was benched during the first quarter and all he did during the game was pretty much nothing. St Louis has an average pass defense and a good pass rush to pound Arizona's horrible offensive line, so I just don't see how Lindley will be able to have any kind of production today. Then, the Cardinals' running game continues to be full of injuries (LaRod Stephens-Howling is banged up with a ribs injury, while Beanie Wells is returning this week, but a very limited capacity) and with very little effectiveness (#29 with 3.6 rushing yards per carry). St Louis has a decent run defense (#15 with 4.1 rushing yards allowed per carry) and they won't have problems in stopping the Cardinals' running game as well.
On the other side, Sam Bradford has been having a decent season actually, but he will be facing one of the best pass defenses in the league today. Arizona is #4 in completion percentage allowed, #11 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #2 in QB rating allowed, #7 in third down conversion allowed and #8 in red zone defense! Therefore, I don't believe the Rams' passing game will have a good game today, especially with their best receiver Danny Amendola out of today's game with a foot injury. St Louis has been quite decent on their running game lately and they are #10 in the league with 4.4 rushing yards per carry. However, Arizona's run defense is #11 in the league with 4.0 rushing yards allowed per carry and I believe they will be able to limit both Stephen Jackson and Daryl Richardson today as well.
I believe both offenses will struggle today, as Arizona's offense is a mess and St Louis' defense is good enough to limit them, while the Rams' offense has been decent actually, but Arizona's defense is playing extremely well this season. Therefore, I expect a very low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 241/242 Under 36,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
NFL Week 12 - 243 Green Bay Packers @ 244 New York Giants
Projected Line: Green Bay by 1 point
I just don't see a reason why the Giants should be favored on this contest. First of all, this is a massive revenge game for Green Bay, after having lost at home against the Giants in last year's playoffs. Aaron Rodgers is playing very well once again, he leads the league in QB rating, while he is also #5 in completion percentage and #11 in yards per pass attempt. The Packers are #8 in third down conversion and #2 in red zone offense, so their offense is also being clutch this season. They will be facing a Giants' secondary that hasn't been impressive this season, as they are just #22 in completion percentage allowed, #29 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #13 in QB rating allowed, #16 in third down conversion allowed and #15 in red zone defense. Most of the Giants' success on defense was coming from their great pass rush, but the truth is that their pass rush is being just average this season with 25 sacks in 11 games (#13 in the league). It's a fact that Green Bay's offensive line has been struggling this season, but I just don't see the Giants having a good enough pass rush tonight that makes Aaron Rodgers really struggle. With the Giants having a poor run defense (#25 with 4.4 rushing yards allowed per carry), Aaron Rodgers should be able to receive some support from the running game and so, I expect Green Bay to have a decent offensive game today.
But if there's a big difference between last season's and this season's matchup between these two teams is in how improved the Packers' defense is this season in comparison to last season's. While Green Bay's defense was a complete mess last season, they are now a top 10 defense in the league. Not only the Packers have one of the best pass rushing units in the league, as they have a good pass defense by being #3 in completion percentage allowed, #10 in yards allowed per pass attempt, #6 in QB rating allowed and #8 in third down conversion allowed! They will be facing a dangerous Giants' passing game tonight, but with Eli Manning struggling so much over the last few weeks, I just don't see the Giants having a great offensive game tonight. Ahmad Bradshaw has been banged up with a foot injury and even though the Giants' running game is #8 in the league with 4.4 rushing yards per carry, the Packers also have a decent run defense by being ranked #12 with 4.1 rushing yards allowed per carry! Therefore, I believe the Packers' defense will show up today and allow much less points than the 37 points they allowed to the Giants in last year's playoffs.
I believe Green Bay's defensive improvement will allow them to limit the Giants' offense today, while Aaron Rodgers will have a decent game tonight, as the Giants' pass rush is very far right now from the level they showed in last year's playoffs. I see the Packers as clearly the better team of the two and with them having revenge on their minds, I expect them to eventually come up on top of a very close game. I'm taking Green Bay tonight.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 243 Green Bay Packers (+3) @ -120 / 1.83 on Bookmaker
2-Team 6,5pts Teaser:
NFL Week 12 - 221 Oakland Raiders @ 222 Cincinnati Bengals
NFL Week 12 - 231 Minnesota Vikings @ 232 Chicago Bears
I believe the Bengals won't have any problems in beating the lowly Raiders today. Cincinnati is coming from two good wins against the Giants and the Chiefs and they won't have problems in pounding the poor Raiders defense, especially with their passing game. On the other end, Carson Palmer might have a decent game today, but with no running game to support Oakland's passing game and with the Bengals' great pass rush putting Palmer in a lot of pressure today, I expect Palmer to turn the ball over today a couple of times. Cincinnati has edges on almost every department of this game and therefore, I expect them to have a very easy win today.
Minnesota is a dangerous team with Adrian Peterson in such great form, but Chicago is coming from a terrible game at San Francisco and I expect them to have a defensive bounce back today. The Bears have been amazing in takeaways this season and Christian Ponder and his inconsistent play is a perfect target to become another victim of the Bears' super aggressive defense. With Percy Harvin out of today's game, Chicago won't have problems in shutting down the Vikings' passing game, something that will allow to concentrate most of their focus on Adrian Peterson, limiting his effectiveness in the process. On the other hand, with Jay Cutler back, Chicago will have some production coming from their passing game and with the help of some good defensive play, the Bears shouldn't have problems in taking out the Vikings at home on a very strong bounce back spot for them.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 222 Cincinnati Bengals (-3,5) x 232 Chicago Bears (-1) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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