NBA - 503 Milwaukee Bucks @ 504 Charlotte Bobcats
Projected Line: 199 points
Milwaukee is coming from a home win against New Orleans, where the Bucks just couldn't stop Anthony Davis or anybody really, as they allowed 63% FG in the first half and 53% FG in the whole game! Milwaukee's poor perimeter defense allowed Greivis Vasquez to penetrate in pick and roll and then assist the frontcourt, allowing the Hornets' PG to end the game with 11 assists! Milwaukee's problems in defending the perimeter are very evident and that will be good for Charlotte, who needs their guards to have big games, in order for them to be competitive. So, Kemba Walker will have a good spot to have a decent game and the same can be said about Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Ramon Sessions or even Ben Gordon!
The Bobcats struggled in scoring against Memphis, mainly thanks to a stagnant halfcourt offense. They don't have a good ball movement to be productive on slow paced games and they ended up shooting just 37.6% FG! Basically, Memphis' frontcourt size plus their good perimeter defense were a terrible matchup for Charlotte's offense, however Milwaukee with their poor perimeter defense and they predisposition to run makes the game be much more open for Charlotte to attack the basket.
On the other side, Milwaukee's offense has a good backcourt, as we all know. They took very well advantage of the Hornets backcourt, with Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis and Mike Dunleavy enjoying good games. Monta Ellis shot 8-16 FG and had 9 assists, Brandon Jennings shot 8-16 FG and had 9 assists, while Mike Dunleavy shot 5-12 FG and had 5 assists! Milwaukee shot 3-6 FG from 10-15 feet, 6-16 FG from 16-23 feet and 13-25 from 3pts! Everything worked well on offense to them, as they shot 7-10 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays, 13-26 FG on spot ups, 6-14 FG on cuts and 6-9 FG on transitions! Charlotte has been pressuring a lot on defense, but they are easily outplayed with a good ball movement and in that sense, Milwaukee has been a great offensive team, with a very good ball movement, as they are #4 in A/TO ratio with 1.664 and #7 in assists per FG made with 63%!
I expect this game to be played on a fast pace and with both backcourts having an offensive edge, turning this game into a high scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 195 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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