NBA - 523 Portland Trailblazers @ 524 Phoenix Suns
Projected Line: Phoenix by 5 points
Both teams are on a good spot for tonight's game, with 2 and 3 days off to rest prior to this game. These two teams are super heavy dependent of their starters, as both teams have a poor bench and so, they need their starters with fresh legs to have good performances. We have some nice edges for both offenses on this game. We have already seen that Portland struggles big time in defending the PG and Center Positions, as both Damian Lillard and J.J. Hickson are poor defenders. Their problems at defending these two positions make them struggle big time on pick and rolls and the truth is that they are #29 in the league in defending pick and roll ball handling by allowing 0.92 PPP. They aren't also a poor team in defending at the rim by allowing their opponents to shoot 67% FG from this area and 53% FG from 3-9 feet! These are good news for the Suns offense, as their two best players on offense are currently their PG and their Center in Goran Dragic and Marcin Gortat. Dragic has been the key for Phoenix's performances, as when they win, he is averaging 54.2% FG and 19.5 points, while when they lose, Dragic is just averaging 43.5% FG and 14.4 points! With him playing well tonight and with Phoenix taking advantage of Portland's poor interior defense (they are #30 in the league in points in the paint allowed with 48.6 ppg), we have a good spot for Phoenix to have a great offensive game tonight.
On the other side, Portland has also a good defense, but that is more perimeter oriented than Phoenix's. In fact, they are until now a top outside shooting team by being #10 in FG from 16-23 feet and #6 from 3pts! Rookie Damian Lillard has been excellent on offense and even J.J. Hickson has improved in grabbing offensive rebounds. As long as their starting lineup is on a good spot like tonight, Portland is a quite underrated offensive team. The problem for them tonight is that Phoenix has a good defense on what Portland does best on offense, as they are #9 pn pick and roll ball handler defense, #13 on post up defense and #9 on transition defense. Also J.J. Hickson is questionable tonight with a shoulder injury. The Suns' perimeter defense is terrible, as they are dead last in the league in allowing 3pts with 43.2% 3pts! However, Nicolas Batum is questionable for today with the flu and so, Portland won't have their best perimeter shooting at 100% tonight, even if he plays.
Therefore, I believe Phoenix has every condition to have a good offensive game tonight, while Portland won't have J.J. Hickson and Nicolas Batum at 100% for tonight and they have very little quality on the bench to replace them. So, I believe Phoenix should have a comfortable win tonight and I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 524 Phoenix Suns (-2) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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