Saturday, November 24, 2012

NBA Premium Play 11/23: Cleveland Cavaliers @ Orlando Magic


NBA - 503 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 504 Orlando Magic

Projected Line: Orlando by 8 points

Cleveland is coming from an easy win over Philadelphia, where the Sixers were on a bad spot and they got completely shutdown on offense. The Sixers were just lethargic in both ends of the floor and they couldn't even defend pick and rolls or screens. Philadelphia shot 2-14 FG in transitions, 5-18 FG on spot ups and 5-13 FG in pick and roll ball handler! So, the Cavaliers had an easy task, with Jeremy Pargo and Dion Waiters combining 41 FG attempts! Pargo was indeed amazing with 11-19 FG and 28 points. It was weird to see him outplaying Jrue Holiday, but this shows how Holiday was also very tired. Cleveland also dominated the boards and their offense was basically built on pick and rolls, isolations, spot ups, offensive rebounds and transitions! The problem for Cleveland is that I don't believe they will be repeat to keep having success under this formula. Now with Jeremy Pargo not having the surprise effect anymore and without Orlando overlooking them, I seriously doubt that Cleveland's offense will be able to have a decent game tonight.

The Magic are coming from a home win against Detroit, where they struggled during the first half, but then started the second half with a 18-0 run, with Detroit committing seven turnovers, while playing zero defense and taking horrible shots on offense! But we have to give merit to Orlando as now, who did an excellent job of contesting shots in the paint and forcing the Pistons to beat them from the perimeter, an area where they struggle. With Detroit taking bad shots from the outside and committing turnovers, Orlando simply outplayed them in the second half. The Magic's offense did very well on cuts and pick and rolls as well for another decent performance.

Orlando had some excellent coaching during the second half and they simply crushed a disoriented Pistons team during the second half. With their offensive dynamic with cuts and pick and rolls with Jameer Nelson, Orlando will take advantage of Cleveland's poor perimeter defense, who has only Anderson Varejao helping them out in some plays. Cleveland is still allowing 78% FG at the rim and even though Orlando doesn't have a dominant center, they have aggressive guards who attack the basket with cuts and dribbles and that's why they are hitting 67% FG at the rim with Jameer Nelson on the court! Cleveland took advantage of a terrible spot of the Sixers, but that won't happen today and so, Orlando should have an easy win tonight. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 Orlando Magic (-4,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker


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