Thursday, November 29, 2012

NBA Premium Play 11/28: Washington Wizards @ Portland Trailblazers


NBA - 701 Portland Trailblazers @ 702 Washington Wizards

Projected Line: 190 points

Portland is coming from a loss in Detroit, where their defense struggled once again in both the PG position and the paint. This is why Greg Monroe had 8-16 FG, 20 points and 10 rebounds, while Brandon Knight had 9-17 FG and 26 points. Detroit shot 25-34 FG at the rim, while shooting 9-9 FG in transitions and 7-8 FG in cuts. The Blazers had a big game from LaMarcus Aldridge, but they need a better Damian Lillard for them to win the game (4-18 FG and 4-14 FG on pick and roll ball handler plays). On the other hand, Washington is coming from another loss, this time at home against the Spurs. The game was close until half time, but then San Antonio had a great offensive game with 20-25 FG at the rim and 13-23 3pts! Washington dominated the boards, but without Nene playing, the Wizards didn't have any big man coming off the bench for the Wizards to remain competitive. Washington looked good on pick and rolls on offense, but they had too much volume on outside shooting for the little talent they have and so, they were eventually completely outscored by the Spurs' great offense.

On tonight's contest, I believe both teams should be able to have nice defensive performances. Normally centers are a concern for Portland, but Emeka Okafor isn't a big danger on offense. The same thing about A.J. Price and the Blazers' poor defense at the PG position. Washington also doesn't shoot near the basket, so they won't maximize Portland's problems in defending near the basket. On the other hand, Portland's offense is very dependent from their pick and rolls, where they are #2 with 0.83 PPP and also their transition plays, where they are #5 in the league. However, Washington is #1 on pick and roll ball handler defense and so, they should be able to limit Portland's offense tonight. The Wizards have also been struggling on their interior defense, but their perimeter defense has been quite good and this is why they defend pick and rolls so well.

I believe both teams will struggle in taking advantage of the defensive problems of their opponent and therefore, I expect a low scoring game in here. I'm taking the Under on this contest.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 701/702 Under 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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