NBA Premium Play 11/14: Utah Jazz @ Boston Celtics

NBA - 703 Utah Jazz @ 704 Boston Celtics

Projected Line: Boston by 8 points

Utah is coming from a huge win at Toronto on triple overtime, but where they were outplayed in Toronto in three quarters. We had four players from Utah playing more than 40 minutes each: Mo Williams 50 minutes, Al Jefferson 49 minutes, Paul Millsap 44 minutes and Derrick Favors 45 minutes. I don't like their spot for them, as they have already showed that they aren't a good road team. 

The Jazz have a good offensive strength on the frontcourt with Al Jefferson and Paul Millsap, even though their post up plays aren't just being efficient by being ranked just #25 with 0.74 PPP! They are forcing a lot of shots from the outside, with Mo Williams being the cause of this. With this change on their style, Utah is struggling on finding their real identity. On their last game against Toronto, Utah shot better than Toronto from the outside, while exploring very little the paint with 14-21 FG at the rim, but with 9-20 FG from 16-23 feet and 14-26 3pts! Utah played well on cuts and transition plays, while they struggled on post up plays with 6-19 FG and 0.76 PPP! The problem of the Jazz is that they aren't consistent and with a potential letdown spot, I just can't trust them tonight. Take a look at their inconsistency from the 3pts line this season: 6-14, 10-28, 5-13, 5-15, 5-17, 4-23, 2-14 and 14-26!

The perception is that Boston is a poor rebounding team, but that's not true. They are indeed the worst offensive rebounding team in the league with just a 16.4% offensive rebound rate, but on defense, they are a top team by being #3 with 76.9% of the rebounds grabbed. Therefore, Utah should struggle tonight in grabbing offensive rebounds. Boston is indeed a poor defensive team at the rim by allowing 70% FG at the rim. They have problems against quick guards who know how to attack the rim and make the Celtics defense to rotate and that causes big holes on the defense, but Utah doesn't have this kind of guards, as the Jazz has an outside shooter in Mo Williams and coming off the bench, Randy Foye, Jamaal Tinsley aren't dangerous neither, and only Gordon Hayward offers danger in terms of penetrating into the basket.

The key matchup of this contest will be Rajon Rondo vs Mo Williams. I believe this will be a mismatch for Rondo, as Mo Williams has been injured, he was questionable for the game at Toronto and he had to play 50 minutes! Now against Rajon Rondo, he will get totally outplayed tonight.

After two poor games in a row, Boston was excellent on their last two games, especially at their win in Chicago. Rajon Rondo dominated the game as expected by completely outplaying Nate Robinson so much that in the fourth quarter, coach Thibodeau opted to use the rookie Marcus Teague in the lineup instead of Nate Robinson. Boston's offense was super sharp with 19-24 FG at the rim and 14-30 FG from 16-23 feet! The Celtics also shot 9-12 FG on pick and roll ball handler and the perimeter also played very well with 6-6 FG on cuts, 5-7 FG on hand offs and 3-5 FG on off screens! Boston was also able to avoid getting massively outrebounded by a top rebounding team, while they committed only 8 turnovers! Coming from the bench, both Leandro Barbosa and Jeff Green seem to be better integrated on the team.

With this terrific ball movement, Boston is #2 on the league in 16-23 feet shooting with 43% FG, while Utah isn't a good team in making closeouts, as they are just #29 on spot up defense. Also note that Boston is shooting 43% FG from 16-23 feet this season, but numbers are even better with 37-74 (50%) FG on their last three games! Even Toronto, who isn't a good perimeter shooting team, shot 11-24 FG from 16-23 feet and 8-24 3pts against Utah and therefore, I believe Boston will have a good shooting night, while completely outplaying a Jazz team on a poor spot. Therefore, I'll be taking the Celtics in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 704 Boston Celtics (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker