Saturday, November 24, 2012

NBA Premium Play 11/23: Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets


NBA - 517 Golden State Warriors @ 518 Denver Nuggets

Projected Line: Denver by 3 points

Denver is 2-0 on their last two games, with a nice defense especially at the paint, while they have been a bit better on their outside shooting. They didn't look good during the first half in Minnesota, but they bounced back with a great second half, where they shutdown the Wolves' offense, with Minnesota losing their offensive identity and Denver took advantage of that. However, the truth is that the Nuggets continue being a very inconsistent team.

Golden State has been very underrated this season and they are coming for this game with revenge after losing against Denver at home on a double overtime game! The Warriors are now a top rebounding team by being a top 5 team on defensive rebounding and this will prevent Denver's from getting the offensive rebounds they rely on to crush the boards. The Warriors are coming from a nice win against Brooklyn, where they outrebounded the Nets and after struggling on defense during the first quarter, coach Mark Jackson changed their defense into a 1-2-2 zone and that made the Nets struggle offensively. 

I expect the Warriors to use zone defense again tonight, in order to force the Nuggets in shooting from the outside, where they aren't very good. Both Klay Thompson and Stephan Curry are now playing better and with them providing support to David Lee on the frontcourt with some good perimeter shooting and penetrations into the basket, I believe the Warriors will be able to make this game a close one, as they are now a tough matchup for Denver. Therefore, I'll be taking Golden State tonight.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 517 Golden State Warriors (+6,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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