NBA - 503 New York Knicks @ 504 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 199 points | San Antonio by 8 points
The Spurs are coming from a win at LA against the Lakers, where Gregg Popovich surprised everyone by inserting Tiago Splitter on the starting lineup. With this change, the Lakers just couldn't take advantage of their frontcourt edge, in a game where the team from LA showed their lack of identity on offense. San Antonio also struggled on offense with this change and even though the starting lineup played well with 16 assists and 4 turnovers, while shooting 28-63 (44,4%) FG, their problem was the bench, as Manu Ginobili needs Tiago Splitter to be efficient and he just shot 1-8 FG on this game. Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter played 26 minutes together and the team had a 92.9 defensive rating and a 91.3 offensive rating with both players on the court. It's clear that with this lineup, their spacing on offense wasn't great. One of the things that starting Boris Diaw together with Tim Duncan is Diaw's ability to draw the other big man away from the basket, as Diaw is a good mid-range and even long-range shooter.
San Antonio will now face the Knicks, who are the only undefeated team in the league. They are coming from a road win at Orlando, but where they underestimated the Magic. This is the second game in a row where the Knicks simply don't have assists, as they had just 17 assists against Dallas and they had just 15 assists against Orlando. They shot 48.8% FG and made 41 shots, so they had an assists rate of just 36%! The Knicks base their offense on pick and rolls and screens, as their isolation, pick and roll ball handler and spot ups combine for 65% of their total offense! Orlando also helped the Knicks due to their inexperienced players not hedging on screens. On defense, I didn't like the Knicks one bit, as it's just too easy for the Knicks to score down low. Tyson Chandler can't be everywhere and Orlando shot 21-27 FG at the rim. The Magic also shot 10-13 FG on cuts, with Orlando's guards penetrating into the basket and with the Knicks backcourt showing no resistance to that. Orlando's problem was Jameer Nelson's absence, as with him on the court, Orlando would make their pick and rolls better and they would commit less turnovers (they had 20 turnovers against the Knicks). With that, the Magic would have won this game, as they had 28 assists, while the Knicks had just 15 assists! But without Nelson, the Knicks won this game while using a small lineup (that even included a small lineup of Felton, Kidd, JR Smith, Novak and Carmelo), mostly due to the poor decision from Orlando's coach in putting Glen Davis defending Carmelo Anthony.
On tonight's game, I'm sure that San Antonio won't use the big lineup they used against the Lakers. The Spurs will be the Knicks' first real test, as they will face for the first time this season a good frontcourt player on both ends of the floor in Tim Duncan and a quick point guard in Tony Parker. With Tim Duncan on the court, Tyson Chandler will be limited on the team help defense he can provide to the team and this will allow the Spurs to have space on the perimeter to their shooters. Carmelo Anthony will also be defended by Kawhi Leonard and Stephen Jackson, two players who should be able to limit Carmelo's offense tonight. One of the areas where San Antonio has been struggling is in allowing offensive rebounds to their opponents, as they are just #23 in the league in defensive rebound rate with 72%. The good news for the Spurs is that the Knicks don't even try to grab offensive rebounds, as they are just #28 on offensive rebound rate.
But the main reason why the Spurs will have an easy win tonight is because of their dynamic backcourt. They know when to shoot from the 3pts line or when to penetrate and making cuts or even off screens plus of course, Tony Parker's pick and roll ball handler plays. These are four areas where San Antonio is obviously in the top 10 of the league and from what I've watched in their game against Orlando, the Knicks defense is just poor on this kind of plays, as they allowed loads of easy points to the Magic. Looking at their shotlocs rim defense, the Knicks are allowing a ridiculous 72% FG at the rim for the second worst record in the league! On the other hand, San Antonio is a top eFG% team at the rim (#8 in the league with 68% FG)and so, I expect them to pound the Knicks at the rim tonight! Another thing that I've noticed on the Knicks game against Orlando is the fact that Tyson Chandler's backup is Rasheed Wallace is very slow, therefore Manu Ginobili and Tiago Splitter's pick and rolls will eat Wallace alive on this contest.
I expect this game to have a good pace and with both teams showing some good offense tonight. However, San Antonio is at a whole different level on offense, with much bigger options and efficiency, therefore I believe the Spurs will comfortably win this game in a good offensive game and so, I'll be taking both San Antonio and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 503/504 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 504 San Antonio Spurs (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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