NBA - 703 Orlando Magic @ 704 Detroit Pistons
Projected Line: 190 points
Detroit is coming from their first win of the season, on a very big road win at Philadelphia. The Sixers played a terrible offensive game by shooting just 29% FG, while showing a complete inability to play half court basketball on the offensive end. Detroit didn't exactly play excellent defense in that game, it was more a case of Philadelphia trying too many shots from the perimeter and not being able to make almost any of them. The only way Philadelphia was able to score was via transitions (7-13 FG) and cuts (4-6 FG). The rest was a complete disaster. On the other hand, Detroit was able to take advantage of Philadelphia's poor frontcourt defense, as they squashed on the rebounds by grabbing 55.5% of the boards, while shooting 19-31 FG at the rim. Detroit showed good effort and Kyle Singler fit very well on the starting lineup by attacking at the rim with 5-6 FG! Detroit didn't shoot well from the outside, but with good volume on the inside and the edge on rebounding plus 21-31 FT, they had a good boost on the offensive end. They also showed good ball movement as well, with 27 assists, a season high. Brandon Knight is also looking in good form right now and he completely outplayed Jrue Holiday in both ends of the floor. It was clearly a good offensive performance from Detroit, while they took advantage of Philadelphia's offensive problems to have an easy win.
For tonight, Rodney Stuckey is probable, but he has suggested that he starts the game from the bench, with Kyle Singler remaining in the starting lineup. So, the Pistons will use the same starting lineup they used at Philadelphia and that worked extremely well on offense against a good Sixers defense. One of the good things that comes with Singler being a starter instead of Stuckey is that Detroit operates more on the inside and against the undersized defense of Orlando, this is good news for the Pistons offense.
On the other hand, Orlando's offense has been struggling on offense. They have been able to shoot well at the rim, especially due to the cuts of their guards. The Magic is averaging 65% FG at the rim! Their problem is really on the outside, with just 34% FG from 16-23 feet, with just 9-46 FG over the last two games. The good news is that Jameer Nelson is probable for tonight and with that, Orlando gets a super boost on offense, as in the 35 minutes that he has played in the season, their offense averaged a 108.0 offensive rating. I know this is a small sample, but no doubt that Orlando's offense works better with their starting PG on the court. Detroit is a poor team in defending pick and roll ball handler (#28) and cuts (#23), so this is also a good spot for a nice offensive game from Orlando.
Therefore, I expect a positive game from both offenses tonight and looking at the low totals line, we have enough edge to take the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 703/704 Over 186.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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