Projected Line: 198 points | Memphis by 8 points
This is Memphis' first spot as a big favorite this season and so, it will be normal that so many games against top teams, they relax a bit. Note that last season, the Grizzlies went 0-6 ATS on home games where they were favored by double digits points and with Cleveland being without Kyrie Irving, it's easy for their opponents to simply overlook Cleveland right now. This is why both Orlando and even Miami struggled to defeat the Cavaliers straight-up!
It's clear that Memphis will have a big edge on the inside against the Cavaliers' poor inside defense that has just Anderson Varejao has a quality frontcourt defender. Memphis has been struggling on shooting near the basket this season, but against a team that has been allowing 76% FG at the rim, I expect Memphis to improve their numbers near the basket today.
On the other hand, Memphis has been a top offensive rebounding team, but at the same time, they have been terrible on defensive rebounding. This will give a good chance for Cleveland to grab offensive rebounds and score second chance points. I expect a lazy effort from Memphis tonight and this will mean that they will have bad close outs to the perimeter, allowing Cleveland to have good outside shooting numbers tonight. Memphis will solve the game down the stretch, but I don't believe they will cover such a large spread of 12.5 points tonight. I also expect this game to be a high scoring one and so, I'll be taking both Cleveland and the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Over 193,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707 Cleveland Cavaliers (+12,5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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