Projected line: Baltimore by 8 points
Even though I have no doubts that Baltimore is a much better team than Cleveland, the truth is that I expect the Browns to be a bit competitive tonight, in a clear letdown spot for the Ravens, after a great win over the Patriots last Sunday Night.
Baltimore is a team known for laying some eggs against lowly teams and this is a good spot for them to struggle. They gave it all to beat New England last Sunday Night and today, in a short week for them, I don't expect them to bring their A game, allowing Cleveland to stay close in the score. Joe Flacco has been playing very well this season and Ray Rice is always a threat in the running game, however I expect the decent defense of Cleveland to limit their action tonight, especially with their reasonable pass rush putting Flacco in some pressure.
On the other hand, the Browns have been average on offense, but Brandon Weeden has been able to give the team some decent yardage in the passing game, something that I expect to happen tonight as well, as Baltimore's pass defense hasn't been great in this early season plus the spot isn't good to see any kind of improvement. Therefore, I expect Weeden to be able to show some productivity on this contest. In terms of the running game, Trent Richardson is coming from a very poor game and even though Baltimore has a good run defense, I believe Richardson should at least be better than he was last Sunday against Buffalo and help the team in the third-and-short situations.
I believe the Browns will surely be more motivated and focused to play this game than Baltimore and therefore, I expect Cleveland's better special teams (especially on returns), solid defense and somewhat interesting offense to be able to put them close in the score for most of the game. The current spread is asking for a very clear blowout win for Baltimore to cover the handicap and I don't believe that will happen tonight, as Baltimore is on a clear letdown spot. Therefore, I'll be taking Cleveland in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101 Cleveland Browns (+13) @ -115 / 1.87 on Bodog
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