MLB - 903 Cincinnati Reds @ 904 Miami Marlins
(Starting Pitchers: B. Arroyo vs J. Turner)
Cincinnati will start Arroyo tonight and I believe his good run lately is being overrated. He may be 5-0 over his last six starts, but he faced Houston (twice), Arizona, Philadelphia and the Cubs (twice)! Miami struggled on offense in Philadelphia against Lee and Kendrick, but still they are hitting .273 BA against RHP on their last 10 games! They have also a .704 OPS in September, so they are definitely hitting better now than they did for most of the season. They also know Arroyo well, as they have already faced Arroyo this season and in 6.1 innings, he allowed 10 hits and 4 earned runs to the Marlins, whose roster is hitting .302 BA and .916 OPS against Arroyo. So, I believe Arroyo is going to actually have a tough time tonight.
Miami will start Turner, who had two good outings and one bad on his three starts. The poor one was against Washington, but he bounced back nicely after that game. He has been showing good command with 3/1, 6/0 and 5/0 K/BB plus the fact that nobody from the Reds roster has ever hit against Turner should allow him to have another good outing tonight, with the surprise factor helping him.
I believe Miami has a lot of value tonight, as they have a good chance to make the upset in here. Arroyo's good run is being overrated and Miami has hit well against him early on the season and I wouldn't be surprised if that happens once again tonight. On the other hand, Turner has been looking good on his first starts and he has the surprise factor to dominate the Reds lineup on tonight's game. Still, as Cincinnati has a very strong bullpen edge for Miami, I've decided to take the Marlins in here on the Runline on the first Five innings.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 904 Miami Marlins RL +0.5 FIRST FIVE INNINGS (w/ J. Turner) @ -125 / 1.80 on 5Dimes
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