Monday, September 17, 2012

NFL Week 2 Premium Play 09/16: Dallas Cowboys @ Seattle Seahawks


NFL Week 2 - 215 Dallas Cowboys @ 216 Seattle Seahawks

Projected line: 38 points

I expect both teams to have a good defensive performance on this contest and make this game a low scoring one. The Cowboys are coming from a road win in NY against the Giants, where they looked quite good on offense. However, that was mostly due to a huge game from backup WR Kevin Ogletree, something that I don't expect to happen two weeks in a row. DeMarco Murray also had a good performance last week, but Seattle was #4 in the league last year in rushing yards allowed per carry and I believe they will be able to limit him today. I'm not convinced by the Cowboys Offensive Line, even after last week's good performance, and they will be playing without the starting Center Phil Costa, something that should allow the Seahawks DL to put pressure on Tony Romo today. Seattle was also a top 10 team in pass defense last season and I believe they should be able to indeed limit the Cowboys offense today.

On the other hand, Russell Wilson didn't look good last week at all and therefore, I expect Marshawn Lynch to have a lot of carries today to protect his rookie quarterback from the Cowboys good pass rush. However, Dallas also has a good run defense and they should be able to limit Lynch's production today. With two good punters on the field as well, I expect this game to be quite physical, with both teams using their running game quite often and with the game ended up being a low scoring affair. Therefore, I came up with a totals line of 38 points and so, I'll be taking the Under in here. 

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 215/216 Under 42,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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