NFL Week 1 Free Premium Play 09/09: Indianapolis Colts @ Chicago Bears

Indianapolis  at Chicago

Play: Single Dime Play on Chicago -9.5

Comments: NFL Week 1 - 453 Indianapolis Colts @ 454 Chicago Bears Projected line: Chicago by 14 points Even though this game will surely be very talked due to Andrew Luck's NFL debut, I don't expect this game to end very well for the Colts, who aren't an improved team since last season, if we exclude the Quarterback position. They keep having WR Reggie Wayne as their only quality receiver in the field and with their number two receiver Austin Collie questionable due to a concussion, it's hard to believe that the Colts passing game will be effective today while being so uni-dimensional, especially against one of the best defenses in the league that kept basically the same structure from last season. Luck had a good preseason, but he struggled when he faced a top defensive team like Pittsburgh with 16-25 175 yds 0TD 2INT and the same thing should happen today. The Colts have RB Donald Brown as their main weapon on the run offense, but he won't do anything significant against a powerful Chicago DL, who has been known for their great run defense for years now. Bottom line: Indianapolis will heavily struggle on offense today, with a rookie QB, a poor and uni-dimensional receivers corps plus a RB who will be overpowered by the Bears DL. On the other hand, the Bears will have a good matchup today to start immediately taking advantage of their improved receivers corps with WR Brandon Marshall and rookie WR Alshon Jeffrey. The Colts had a terrible pass defense last season and they didn't improve their secondary in the offseason to change that, therefore I expect QB Jay Cutler to have a field day today by exploring the mismatches the Bears will have in their favor in today's game. RB Michael Bush is joining Matt Forte in the running department and they should be able to also punish a Colts run defense who was never good even on their prime years and will continue to struggle on this new era. The Colts have changed their 4-3 formation into a 3-4, with Robert Mathias and Dwight Freeney changing from the DE position into a OLB position, something that the team obviously needs time to adjust and while that doesn't happen, I can see Indianapolis struggling even more than usual on defense, especially on the pass rushing that won't be able to explore the Bears' continuous problems on their Offensive Line. Besides having a clear edge in both the offense and defense, the Bears have also one of the best special teams units in the league and don't be surprised if returner Devin Hester takes advantage of the Colts poor coverage on both punts and kick offs and has a big play for his team on a return. With all these edges, I believe the Bears will debut today with a home blowout and therefore, I'll be taking them in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 454 Chicago Bears (-9.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker