Sunday, September 30, 2012

MLB Premium Play 09/29: Houston Astros @ Milwaukee Brewers


MLB - 953 Houston Astros @ 954 Milwaukee Brewers

(Starting Pitchers: D. Keuchel vs M. Estrada)

Milwaukee will start Estrada and he has been pitching very well, excluding his last start where he was crushed in Washington. He is a flyball pitcher and against a potent power lineup like the Nationals, he had no chances. Today, things should be very different and Estrada should comeback to the quality outings. Houston is a much better matchup for him and he should dominate with ease.

On the other hand, Houston will start Keuchel and he is a LH pitcher, who has a 5.69 FIP against RH batters this season. So, he will be an easy target for the powerful Brewers lineup. This was already visible on his first visit to Milwaukee, where he allowed 7 earned runs in four innings. Keuchel is coming from three good outings, but they were against the Cubs and the Pirates plus the Phillies, who struggle against LH pitchers. Things will be much tougher for him tonight. With Estrada dominating the Astros and Milwaukee putting Keuchel in huge trouble, I expect an easy win for the Brewers and so, I'll be taking them on the Runline today.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 954 Milwaukee Brewers RL -1.5 (w/ M. Estrada) @ -135 / 1.74 on 5Dimes

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