Saturday, September 22, 2012

MLB Premium Play 09/21: San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants


MLB - 965 San Diego Padres @ 966 San Francisco Giants

(Starting Pitchers: C. Kelly vs R. Vogelsong)

Both teams are now red hot offenses, with San Diego being #4 on OPS with .788 and San Francisco #6 with .773 OPS over the last 30 days. Now they will be facing two struggling pitchers and so, I expect this game to have a high number of runs scored. San Francisco will start Vogelsong, who has been struggling since August. He has been crushed by San Diego recently with three earned runs and eight hits allowed in just three innings, while throwing 96 pitches. He hasn't been impressive at all on his last two starts, with a poor 6/4 and 1/0 K/BB ratio.

San Diego will start the rookie Kelly, who after two good starts has been poor on his following three outings, even though his last start was solid. The problem for him is that San Francisco's offense has been onfire recently and he won't be able to handle the Giants' good hitting in here. Therefore, I don't believe this game deserves to have such a low totals line and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 965/966 Over 7.5 (w/ C. Kelly & R. Vogelsong) @ -105 / 1.95 on Bookmaker

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