NFL Week 1 - 471 San Francisco 49ers @ 472 Green Bay Packers
Projected line: Green Bay by 8 points
Green Bay has a very well oiled offense and you can always count of them to have a good offensive game on the Lambeau Field. San Francisco might be a top defensive team, but they are certainly better on the run defense than in the pass defense and already in the preseason, QB Peyton Manning torched them with a 10-12 122yds 2TD 0INT performance. They had already experienced some problems against great quarterbacks last season when Drew Brees torched them in the Conference Semi Final and the same should happen today against Aaron Rodgers and his great receiving corps. The 49ers don't have a top quality pass rushing and therefore, Green Bay's questionable OL won't be very punished today, besides the fact that Rodgers is super mobile and can avoid sacks like very few in the league. RB Cedric Benson is Green Bay's starting running back this season, but barring a surprise, he won't be able to do much against a very tough San Francisco run defense. Still, the Packers have plenty of quality on their passing game to compensate that and I expect them to have another good offensive game today, even though San Francisco is a great defensive team.
The 49ers have an improved receiving corps for this season with WR Randy Moss and WR Mario Manningham, but this doesn't mean QB Alex Smith will start taking more risks because he isn't good enough to do that. He is good by being solid and conservative, so if he starts taking risks to feed his good receiving corps, players like Charles Woodson, Clay Matthews or Sam Shields will be more than ready to make a big defensive play. Therefore, I believe San Francisco will try to run the football today with RB Frank Gore, helped by Kendall Hunter and rookie LaMichael James. I believe it's possible that the 49ers will have a good performance today in the rushing department, however that won't be enough to compensate the damage the Packers will make on San Francisco with their great passing game.
With San Francisco being so dependent on their running game, especially as returner Ted Ginn Jr is doubtful (ankle) for today and this means Kyle Williams (the guy who screwed up against the Giants last season) will be their punt returner for today, I believe the 49ers won't be able to have enough offensive production on this game to hang with Green Bay's high octane passing game that will surely score a high number of points on this contest. Therefore, I expect a comfortable home debut win for the Packers today and so, I'll be taking them in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 472 Green Bay Packers (-5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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