Sunday, September 30, 2012

NFL Week 4 Free Premium Play 09/30: Seattle Seahawks @ St Louis Rams

  
Seattle  at St Louis 
 
 
Play: Single Dime Play on Under 39
Comments:

NFL Week 4 - 217 Seattle Seahawks @ 218 St Louis Rams

Projected Line: 36 points


Games between the Seahawks and the Rams are generally low scoring affairs and this game should keep this tradition pretty much alive. Seattle is playing very well on this early season, but this has been achieved via a very conservative playbook, where QB Russell Wilson doesn't take any kind of risks, leaving RB Marshawn Lynch the responsibility to carry the team's offense. This is resulting in a solid but very unspectacular offensive production for Seattle, something that has been compensated extremely well due to a great defense that is playing like a top defensive team in the league right now. Now against the Rams offense that is clearly compromised due to an OL that can't protect Sam Bradford at all and with RB Steven Jackson nursing a groin injury, I expect Seattle's top quality defense to keep the Rams offensive production to a minimum today.

On the other side, as I've said, the Seahawks play on a very conservative playbook, therefore it is unlikely to see them having huge offensive plays on their games. The Rams' defense seems improved from last year under Jeff Fischer's guidance and with the Seahawks' passing game not being a danger, I expect the Rams to focus on stopping the Seahawks running game and being at least a bit successful in doing that.

With Seattle's great defense stopping the Rams' poor offense and with St Louis also having a defense decent enough to prevent the conservative Seahawks to have a great offensive game today, I believe this game will end up being a low scoring affair, with both teams playing a rather conservative football and without a lot of big plays. Therefore, I see value on the Under on this contest, even with this low totals line and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 217/218 Under 39 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker 

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