NFL Week 1 - 469 Atlanta Falcons @ 470 Kansas City Chiefs
Projected line: Atlanta by 6 points
Kansas City was a team plagued by injuries last season and they'll try to bounce back this season with their injured players returning. However, this debut should be a very tough game for them, as Atlanta offers them a very hard matchup. QB Matt Cassel was solid but unimpressive in the preseason, as he was very conservative and even though he avoided turnovers, he just couldn't make a big play to help his team's passing game. Atlanta has an improved secondary this season with ProBowler CB Asante Samuel and I don't believe the Chiefs will scare them with their poor passing game. Kansas City will in fact bet it all on their running game with RB Jamaal Charles leading the way, helped by Peyton Hills. Charles is coming from a season ending knee injury last season and I don't believe he will handle a heavy load of carries with ease against a good run defense from Atlanta (who averaged less than 100 rushing yards per game allowed last season). I'm not saying the Chiefs won't have a couple of good runs that eventually leads them to some points scored, however with a noneffective passing game and while facing a good offensive team, I don't think that will be enough for the Chiefs to get even very close to win this game.
Atlanta has a well-balanced offense, with a good passing game led by QB Matt Ryan, who has good receivers like WR Julio Jones, WR Roddy White and TE Tony Gonzalez on his side. The running game is also quite dangerous with RB Michael Turner, helped by an Offensive Line that is quite decent and that should handle the Chiefs' DL with some comfort today. Kansas City is a good defensive team at 100%, but that won't be the case today: LB Tamba Hali is suspended, NT Anthony Toribio is doubtful (ankle), S Kendrick Lewis is doubtful as well (shoulder), CB Brandon Flowers is questionable (heel) and CB Jalil Brown is also questionable (groin). This makes the Chiefs' defense quite banged up for today, something that Atlanta should take advantage with their well-balanced offense with a lot of quality in both the passing and the running game.
I believe Atlanta will be able to make a decent defensive job today, while they will also have too much firepower for a banged up Chiefs defense to handle. Therefore, I'll be taking the Falcons on the short spread today.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 469 Atlanta Falcons (-2.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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