Projected Line: 45 points
Both teams are certainly able to create a lot of offensive production at their best, but the problem is that they will be very far from their best condition tonight, with a lot of absences on their offense that will surely make the life of both defenses much easier on this contest.
Carolina is coming from a great win over New Orleans, in a game where they rushed for 219 yards. This is certainly a great mark, however this big effort has a price to be paid in the following game, especially in a short week like this one. The Panthers carried the football 42 times last Sunday and with Jonathan Stewart doubtful for tonight, I don't believe DeAngelo Williams on this own (with a bit of help from Cam Newton) will be able to replicate such huge game on the run offense tonight, especially against a very decent run defense from the Giants. In terms of the passing game, it's clear that the Giants have some issues on their secondary, but Carolina isn't a clearly pass-oriented team and with veteran WR Steve Smith dealing with a knee injury, I believe the Giants will be able to be decent on their pass defense tonight and avoid allowing a high number of big plays.
On the other hand, Eli Manning is coming from a very intense game against Tampa Bay, where he passed for 510 yards but also had 3 interceptions. With both Hakeem Nicks and Domenik Hixon out for tonight, the Giants lose two of their best three Wide Receivers, so the pressure on Victor Cruz will be huge and so will be the extra coverage he will surely have. After such a roller-coaster game last Sunday and with his number of quality receivers being clearly low for this game, I believe Eli Manning will take a more conservative approach to avoid turnovers at any cost. The problem is that RB Ahmad Bradshaw is also doubtful for this game, so the Giants will mostly have Andre Brown as their main Running Back and even though Brown has been statistically better than Bradshaw in the first two weeks of the season, he hasn't had any huge game and I don't believe he will be able to have one tonight either.
I don't expect any kind of big plays on returns, so I believe the number of offensive big plays on this contest will be actually low. With the Panthers being on a letdown spot in terms of their running game, as they spent a lot of energy last Sunday and without Stewart tonight, and the Giants with their QB coming from a very stressful game and being without two WR's and their main RB for tonight, I believe this game will actually see Carolina struggling against a good defensive team, who can be very good in terms of putting pressure on the opposite QB and the Giants will be more conservative than usual without three of their biggest playmakers on offense. Therefore, I came up with a totals line of 45 points, low enough for me to take the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 303/304 Under 49 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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