MLB - 915 Arizona Diamondbacks @ 916 Los Angeles Dodgers
(Starting Pitchers: W. Miley vs C. Capuano)
Arizona will start Miley today and he has allowed just three runs or fewer in 18 of his 23 starts of the season. He is coming from an outing against the Reds, where he allowed three runs in seven innings. However, I believe Arizona is abusing on Miley's utilization lately, as he had played 11 games with 4 days rest, 9 games with 5 days rest and just 2 games with 6 or more days rest. More recently, he played in Miami with just 4 days rest, then faced Cincinnati in 5 days rest and he will now play today against the Dodgers with just 4 days rest once again. He has thrown 102, 116 and 107 pitches on his last three starts, so I don't believe he will be fully rested for today and that should make him struggle a bit today. He has already faced the Dodgers three times this season and had a FIP of 4.45, 6.70 and 3.35 in those games, even though he allowed just 1, 4 and 1 runs in those outings, so I believe he will struggle today against the Dodgers.
The Dodgers will be starting Capuano, who is coming from allowing six runs for the second-straight outing. He is now regressing after a great 1st half of the season, he struggles against RH hitters and therefore, Arizona has a good spot to crush another LH pitcher in this contest. Capuano has already faced Arizona twice this season and he allowed 5 runs in each game, so there are reasons to believe that Capuano will once again struggle today. With Miley likely to struggle today and Capuano being on regressing mode right now and having a tough matchup today, I believe this very low totals line isn't the correct one for this contest and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 915/916 Over 7 (w/ W. Miley & C. Capuano) @ -120 / 1.83 on 5Dimes
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