Projected line: 47 points
It looks like the public believes this will be a very high scoring game, as they've pushed the line into 51 points, something that now gives me enough edge to take the Under. The Packers are coming from a loss at home against San Francisco, where they faced a very good defensive team, who literally stop their running game and limited Rodgers for most of the game as well. Most people expect a clear bounce back from the Packers offense, but against another good defense like the Bears and with Greg Jennings doubtful for tonight, I don't see a huge offensive bounce back happening today. Chicago is a very experienced and confident team right now and they have a good pass rushing ready to put the Packers' Offensive Line in trouble tonight. They also have a very good run defense to stop Cedric Benson and therefore, the Packers offense will be uni-dimensional like they were in the week 1 by using almost exclusively their passing game that will most likely be missing their main target in Greg Jennings. Sure Rodgers has other quality options in the receiving corps, but Chicago has a quality defense and should also be able to limit Rodgers' passing game, just like the 49ers did in the previous week.
On the other hand, Chicago looked very good on offense last week, but let's not forget Indianapolis has a very weak defense. Sure that the Packers weren't much better last year, however I saw some improvements on defense last week, especially on the pass rushing with Green Bay sacking Alex Smith four times, with Clay Matthews having 2.5 sacks. The Bears' main weakness on offense is exactly on their Offensive Line (they struggled at times against a poor Colts Front Seven last week that was lacking an injured Dwight Freeney) and so, I believe Green Bay will also put Cutler in a lot of trouble today. Matt Forte will be a danger to the Packers average run defense, however Green Bay is clearly using defensive schemes to avoid big plays at any cost and even though they kept allowing yardage to the 49ers offense, they didn't allow any big play to San Francisco last week, as the 49ers biggest play was a throw to TE Vernon Davis for 29 yards. Therefore, I expect the Bears to have a decent offensive game tonight, but with the Packers defense being able to prevent Chicago to score very quickly against them.
As we are talking about two very experienced teams, I don't expect this to turn into a turnover fest that could very quickly increase the number of points scored or any kind of terrible special teams play, as the Bears had the best special teams unit in the league last year and the Packers have a good punter as well and a reasonable coverage as well to prevent any huge special teams play from Chicago. Therefore, as I believe both teams will have a decent but not superb offensive play and both teams should be able to play solid football without screwing up a lot, I don't see this time to go over such a very high totals line of 51 points and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 101/102 Under 51 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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