NBA - 707 Miami Heat @ 708 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 194 points
This could have been the biggest game of the regular season if Miami hadn't lost in Chicago last Wednesday. However, this will still be a great game. We can't take anything in consideration from the game played at Miami between these two teams earlier on the season because Coach Popovich decided to rest his starters in that way. That contest was a fast paced one, something that I doubt that it will happen today. In fact, I expect this game to be a pure half court game.
There are several things that make me believe that this game will be indeed a slow paced one. Both teams commit a very small number of turnovers and even though San Antonio actually struggled a bit on this area lately, they bounced back big time on their last game against the Clippers by committing just 9 turnovers. These two teams simply don't try to get offensive rebounds, as Miami is #27 in the league on this area, while San Antonio is #29, so this game won't have a lot of second chance points. Finally, both teams don't like to put their opponents on the FT line. San Antonio is #2 in the league on opposing FT rate with 18.2%!
We are also in front of two top teams in rim defense, so this game won't have a lot of easy points scored. Of course both teams are coming from monster outside shooting games, with Miami shooting 14-27 3pts at New Orleans, while San Antonio was super efficient on their perimeter shooting against the Clippers. However, I believe both teams will show a lot of intensity on defense today and prevent their opponents from having huge perimeter shooting games today. Miami is choosing their spots very well to rise their defensive level this season and tonight it will certainly be one of those spots. On the other hand, San Antonio has been an elite defensive team this season and they will certainly do a good job on defending the Heat tonight. Therefore, I expect a game close to be a grind out contest and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 707/708 Under 197,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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