Wednesday, March 27, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 03/27: Memphis Grizzlies @ New York Knicks

  
Memphis  at New York 
NBA - 759 Memphis Grizzlies @ 760 New York Knicks

Projected Line: 182 points


Memphis defeated Boston at home without Marc Gasol by playing small ball, while pushing up the pace against the undersized Celtics. Then, they went to Washington DC to face the Wizards without Nene Hilario and their strategy was the same from the previous game, with defensive specialist Tony Allen playing just 16 minutes, with Jerryd Bayless playing 28 minutes coming off the bench! However, things didn't work well for the Grizzlies, as John Wall had an insane performance and torched Memphis apart.

Therefore, the Grizzlies are in bounce back mode tonight and they will have a much easier matchup for them, as the Knicks don't have someone like John Wall at the PG position. In fact, they have one of the slowest backcourt units with Raymond Felton, Pablo Prigioni and Jason Kidd. The Knicks are known for their spot up shooting, but they won't be very lucky tonight, as Memphis's perimeter defense has been ridiculously good lately by allowing just 26.3% 3pts on their last 10 games (#1 in the league). Besides that, the Knicks's key offensive players won't have easy individual matchups. J.R. Smith had a dream matchup last night in Boston against Jason Terry and Jordan Crawford, while he will have to face Tony Allen tonight. On the other hand, Carmelo Anthony will also have a tough opponent in Tayshaun Prince.

On the other hand, the Grizzlies's offense loses a lot without Marc Gasol. He is the team's best post up player and he would have had a field day tonight, as the Knicks's post up defense is quite poor without Tyson Chandler. The Grizzlies will try to explore their size edge over the Knicks on the frontcourt, but Zach Randolph and Ed Davis are raw on offense and they're prone to take some really poor shots, even though they have a lot of hustle and then grab a lot of rebounds as well. The Knicks's defense should be good enough to stop the Grizzlies's average offense, who will be deeply missing Marc Gasol tonight. I expect a very slow paced game in here, as the Knicks have been playing at a ridiculously slow pace lately and Memphis is comfortable with that kind of game, while the Grizzlies should make a great defensive job on the Knicks's offense tonight, but they should struggle on offense on their own without their best playmaker on the court tonight. Therefore, I expect a very low scoring game tonight and so, I'll be taking the Under in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 759/760 Under 186 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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