Projected Line: 201 points
Philadelphia showed no energy at Utah last Monday night, after finally getting a road win at Sacramento the night before. However, we can expect Philadelphia to show a much better effort and levels of energy tonight, as nobody played more than 32 minutes against the Jazz, with Jrue Holiday playing just 24 minutes in that game. Both the Sixers and the Bucks have been struggling on their perimeter defense lately and that has been translated into recurrent losses for both teams. They have been struggling on pick and roll ball handler defense, on transition defense and even on 3pts defense, with Milwaukee allowing 38.5% 3pts (#24 in the league) and Philadelphia 39.0% 3pts (#25) on their last 10 games! These poor defensive numbers aren't a surprise, as Philadelphia doesn't have quality defensive players and they aren't showing great effort on defense nowadays since their season is already lost, while Milwaukee can't be a good defensive team when their backcourt is formed by Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis, J.J. Redick and Mike Dunleavy!
Therefore, I believe we will have in here both offenses having several edges over their opposing defenses. Philadelphia used to play at one of the slowest paces in the league, but this has changed lately, as their average pace on their last 5 games was 91.9, while their season average is 89.5! We have in here several matchups that will help this game turn into a high scoring one: Jrue Holiday will explore his size edge over Brandon Jennings, Monta Ellis is just too quick for Damien Wilkins, the same happening with Thaddeus Young versus Ersan Ilyasova, while Ilyasova's long-range shooting will torch Young on the other hand. I took the Under on the last game between these two teams, but that game was played in completely different circumstances. It was the last game before the All Star break for both teams and so, the players from both teams were very tired. That helped these two teams to shoot a combined of 8-31 (25.8%) 3pts! Both teams will be much rested for tonight, in a game that will be played at a much faster pace than the last one played between these two teams, due to the actual dynamic of both teams. Therefore, I expect a high scoring game in here tonight and so, I'll be taking the Over in here.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 755/756 Over 197 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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