MLB Free Premium Play 03/31: Texas Rangers @ Houston Astros

Texas  at Houston

MLB - 997 Texas Rangers @ 998 Houston Astros (Starting Pitchers: M. Harrison vs B. Norris) I believe this game has what it takes to be a high scoring game, especially with the wind blowing out to left field in Houston's hitters park. Bud Norris is coming for tonight's game with some hype due to the ridiculous split he had on his home starts last season (1.71 ERA) in comparison to his road starts (6.94 ERA). This kind of split stats are very unlikely to be repeated in consecutive seasons, especially when we aren't talking about a pitcher who plays his home games in a pitcher-friendly park such as San Diego's or Seattle's parks. During Spring Training, Norris didn't impress me: 2-0 record, 5.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and a 8/3 K/BB ratio over 14.2 innings. He continues having a good strikeout ability, but his command is inconsistent. Most important than that it is how he will match up with the Rangers's offense. Norris's best pitch is his sharp slider according to fangraphs stats, as in fact that his only plus value pitch since he debuted on the MLB. The problem for him tonight is that Texas was #1 in the league in hitting against slider pitches. Josh Hamilton may be gone, but Texas has A.J. Pierzynski and Lance Berkman, who should be able to fill the gap of Hamilton leaving the team. If we add to this Houston's poor bullpen, we have Texas having a great spot to score a nice number of runs tonight. On the other side, Matt Harrison signed a long term deal with Texas during this offseason, but he struggled during Spring Training due to a toe injury. Thanks to that, he pitched just 12 innings and his results weren't great: 5.11 ERA and just 5 strikeouts! Everybody is expecting the Astros's offense to struggle big time this season, but they may surprise early on the season, as their hitting is carrying some momentum from the preseason, where they were #9 in the league in OPS with .810! They will be also be a good base running team this season, so they should be able to score a decent number of runs tonight against a rusty Harrison. The public is currently on the Under and that has made the totals line decrease, when it should have been on 9 runs. Therefore, I see value on the Over tonight and so, I'll be taking it in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 997/998 Over 8 (w/ M. Harrison & B. Norris) @ -117 / 1.855 on 5Dimes