NBA - 771 Denver Nuggets @ 772 San Antonio Spurs
Projected Line: 204 points
We are in front of two teams who are playing below their potential on their last few games. They have been winning most of them, but there's something missing in both teams. San Antonio has been missing some consistency on offense. Tony Parker has returned to the lineup, but he isn't at 100% physically right now:
"I'm going to do my best to get back to 100 percent" Tony Parker said.
Tim Duncan has been simply amazing, but the Spurs's second unit has been surprisingly struggling as of late. The good news if that the Spurs have regrouped on defense against their awful defensive game against the Cavaliers, as they had defensive ratings of 101.33, 94.18 and 106.52 on their last three games against Golden State, Utah and Houston: good offensive teams!
On the other side, Denver's offensive machine is also struggling with consistency. Without Ty Lawson, the Nuggets lose their fastest player, their best dribble penetrator and their best outside shooter. Andre Miller is a good floor general, but he is a veteran and so, he is much slower than Lawson. Denver's outside shooting has been very inconsistent as well, as they are very predictable on offense without Lawson and so, San Antonio should be able to do a good defensive job today. The only problem the Spurs's defense has been having lately is on their 3pts defense with 45.2% 3pts allowed on their last 10 games, but Denver isn't a good outside shooting team. On the other hand, Denver's defense has been an elite unit on their last 10 games, excluding their last game in New Orleans, where they came out flat and with no energy. The Spurs's offense has been very inconsistent lately and so, I expect Denver to perform a good defensive bounce back today. Therefore, I don't expect this game to be similar to the first two games between these two teams this season that had 226 and 218 points. I expect a relatively low scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Under.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 771/772 Under 208 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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