NBA - 877 New Orleans Hornets @ 878 Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected Line: 193 points
We have a game in here between two losing teams, as Minnesota has a 22-41 record, while New Orleans is 22-44 this season. Therefore, I don't expect any of these two teams to show a lot of defensive intensity, as they don't have anything to fight for right now. In fact, I expect no defense from the Hornets once again, who have been horrible on defense lately by averaging a defensive rating of 120 since the All Star break! The Hornets have been particularly terrible on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.98 PPP allowed, while they are also allowing 1.25 PPP on transitions! The good news for Minnesota's offense is that most of their offense is based on these two kinds of play and so, they will have an excellent spot today to have a good offensive game.
On the other hand, Minnesota is a poor rebounding team, something normal because they are playing super undersized due to the injuries of Nikola Pekovic, Kevin Love and Andrei Kirilenko. New Orleans is a great offensive rebounding team, so I expect them to dominate the Wolves tonight on this department. The Hornets's offense is a bit similar to the Wolves's offense, as they have heavy action on pick and rolls with Greivis Vasquez and Eric Gordon. Minnesota's defense wasn't good on pick and roll ball handler plays on their last five games by allowing 0.94 PPP, as Ricky Rubio is fired up to do well on offense and so, he is gambling a lot on defense. If he gets the steal, Minnesota quickly makes a fast break. But if it doesn't work, their opponents easily score against them on this kind of plays.
Minnesota showed some life on offense on their last three games with offensive ratings of 117.4, 105.5 and 111.1 and today with a good matchup against the terrible Hornets's defense, I expect Minnesota to have their fourth good offensive game in a row. I also expect New Orleans to have a better offensive game today than they had on their last game at Washington, as 3-19 3pts is too bad for them, especially with Ryan Anderson shooting 1-10 3pts! I expect a relatively high scoring game in here and so, I'll be taking the Over on this contest.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 877/878 Over 189 @ -115 / 1.87 on Bovada
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