A new MLB Season is starting this Sunday Night and it will be our main focus for the Spring and Summer. This will be my 6th MLB Season as a handicapper and after a dominating debut in the 2008 season, I heavily struggled in 2009 and that made me change my whole handicapping approach to this sport. This has allowed me and my followers to end the 2010, 2011 and 2012 MLB Regular Seasons with a nice profit. Year after year, I keep adding new features to my handicapping tools, including more advanced stats that allow me to keep improving my results on a yearly basis. I believe that I have the right conditions to have my best MLB Season ever this year, as I've made an extensive research on baseball during its offseason.
As usual, I will keep a low volume of MLB plays for my normal standards during the month of April. The reason for that is that we won't have enough data on this year's performances yet and I don't like to put a lot of emphasis on past seasons's performances. I prefer to focus on the present performances of the players. My volume of plays will gradually increase and get into my regular volume of plays by June, where we will have more info about how the teams and the players are performing this season, while the NBA Season will also be finished by then, so I will also be able to focus exclusively on the MLB.
Since I've made some profound changes on my handicapping tools, I have been dominating both the MLB and the NBA. This is why that from the period between June 16th until the end of last year's MLB Regular Season, I profited +127.14 units on my 3-4-5 Money Management System or +39.27 on a 1-2-3 Money Management System, while hitting 55,2% of my plays (370-300) with an odds average of 1.93 / -107! This is a performance similar to the one I've been having on this year's NBA Season and this is also the kind of results that I'm expecting for this year's MLB Season as well.
My work methods on the MLB are similar to the ones I use on the NBA: hard-work, patience and money management. I've developed advanced stats that I believe they will help me work better in order to try to win on the MLB with a similar success rate that I've been doing it on this year's NBA Season. Besides all the research that I do for every game, all my plays will also have an extensive writeup, telling you why I'm betting on a certain game. This is a sample of what you can expect from a MLB writeup written by me:
MLB - 907 St Louis Cardinals @ 908 San Francisco Giants
(Starting Pitchers: C. Carpenter vs R. Vogelsong)
We won our Over play yesterday in the first game of the series in the 4th inning and it was clear that we are in front of two teams with a lot of experience and that won't struggle no matter what happens during the game. Even when San Francisco was down by 0-6, they quickly bounced back by scoring four consecutive runs and having even chances to make the full comeback. Even though they missed those chances, it was clear that both teams are strong mentally, so it won't bother much San Francisco the fact that they are down in the series.
For today, the Cardinals will start Carpenter, who was one of the reasons why I lost so clearly my biggest play on the postseason. Back then, I wrote the following:
"Chris Carpenter was superb last season in the postseason and he even has the label of being “clutch” in the playoffs but this is not the same Carpenter that we are dealing for today’s game.
He made three starts since coming off the DL and his advanced numbers weren't that good:
ERA FIP xFIP
4.50 3.93 3.72
3.00 4.76 4.55
3.60 3.49 5.26
But then we have to understand that he faced the Cubs, the Astros and the Reds and these 3 teams were simply terrible hitting the ball in September:
CIN #29 w/ .618 OPS
HOU #26 w/ .662 OPS
CHC #23 w/ .676 OPS
...
WAS #1 w/ .819 OPS
Carpenter had three favorable matchups to work in his return but still he didn't impress me at all: he had a higher FB% than he used to, and according to fangraphs.com his avg. fastball speed was 91.4, 90.7 and 89.2 when in the last season, Carpenter topped 93mph in his fastball with regularity.
The Nationals hitters are batting .294 BA against him so I expect Carpenter to struggle a bit today while the Cardinals “best middle relief pitcher” Lance Lynn probably won’t be available after pitching 3 innings in game 2."
Even though Carpenter had a shutout in 5.2 innings, I don't believe he pitched so well that he should also dominate the Giants tonight. First of all, he had immediately an early lead with St Louis scoring 4 runs against Washington in the first two winnings and the Nationals showed in the whole series that they couldn't deal well with high pressure moments and the fact that they were down in the score won't help them at all for the rest of the game. Still, Carpenter threw 106 pitched for just 5.2 innings of work and therefore, we are talking about a 18.7 P/IP! He had just two strikeouts and his groundball/flyball rate wasn't normal for him, as he had 17 fastballs for just 6 groundballs! Despite having a perfect 0.00 ERA, his advanced numbers were much worse with 3.45 FIP and 6.82 xFIP! San Francisco has been a solid team against RH pitchers and sooner or later, Carpenter will suffer from the fact that he isn't at his best right now.
San Francisco will start Vogelsong, who even though isn't a better pitcher than Bumgarner, he is a worse matchup for the Cardinals. St Louis's offense is #3 in hitting against LH pitchers and they faced in their last three games three left handed SP's in Detwiler, Gonzalez and Bumgarner. On the other hand, the right handed Vogelsong has good numbers against RH batters, especially at home. Even though Vogelsong had a terrible phase back in August and September, he looked very good on his last four starts including a "tough" game in Cincinnati, when the Giants were down 0-2 in that series. The Cardinals' batters are just hitting .246 BA and .689 OPS in 61 AB's against him and previously on this series, Vogelsong dominated the Cardinals in St Louis by not allowing a single run in seven innings of work.
Therefore, I expect San Francisco to bounce back tonight from yesterday's loss and tie this series tonight. So, I'll be taking them in here on the Moneyline in a Single Dime Play.
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 908 San Francisco Giants ML (w/ R. Vogelsong) @ -113 / 1.88 on Betonline
(MLB 2012 National League Championship Series Game 2: St Louis 1 San Francisco 7)
If you want a MLB Handicapper that you can trust that he will work non-stop to give you an excellent season, while having the right work methods to never breakdown even when things don't go well at the start of the season (like it happened last season), then I believe I'm your man for the job. With my advanced stats, hard-work and no non-sense approach, I believe that I will have my 4th consecutive winning season on the MLB (5th in 6 handicapped seasons), while having my best MLB Handicapping Season yet, as it has been happening with this year's NBA Season!
I wish everybody a great baseball season and a Happy Easter!
Best Regards,
Andre Gomes
Andre Gomes
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