NBA Free Premium Play 03/18: Dallas Mavericks @ Atlanta Hawks

Dallas  at Atlanta

NBA - 509 Dallas Mavericks @ 510 Atlanta Hawks Projected Line: 199 points This is a terrible spot for Dallas today, as they will play their fourth game in five days, while also being on the second night of a back-to-back, after giving a big fight to Oklahoma City last night. Coach Carlisle finally decided to bench Chris Kaman and start Elton Brand and Jae Crowder! Dallas played with their best available defensive lineup, but Shawn Marion's absence is really noted on the defensive end. However, the removal of Darren Collison and Chris Kaman from the starting lineup is already a big defensive improvement for them. With these changes, Dallas was actually able to do a decent defensive job against the Thunder, as they allowed just 73 points to Oklahoma City in the first three quarters of the game. The problem was on the fourth quarter, where Kevin Durant exploded and scored 19 points on his own! The weirdest part of Dallas's game yesterday was Dirk Nowitzki only having 10 FG attempts during the whole game, after starting the game with 8-8 FG! He didn't even attempt to shoot the ball during the whole fourth quarter! Dallas had good transition numbers as always with 24 fast break points with 9-11 FG on transitions, but I didn't like to see them having just 18 assists, as that's a sign of poor ball movement. The Mavericks will play tonight at Atlanta and this will be a game between two teams that like to score fast break points. However, both teams have also good transition defenses, as Atlanta is #6 in the league with 1.10 PPP allowed, while Dallas is #14 in the league with 1.13 PPP allowed, even though they have just allowed 0.99 PPP on their last five games! The fact that both teams are on back to back spots tonight won't help their offenses in being quick enough to be able to score in transition. I took the Over on the first game of this series and with success, as the game ended with 206 points score. Both teams scored a combined of 40 fast break points, while both frontcourts had a lot of offensive success: Dirk Nowitzki and Brandon Wright shot a combined of 13-20 FG, while Josh Smith and Al Horford shot a combined of 20-29 FG! Both teams are protecting the rim quite well by allowing just 63% FG since the All Star break and with the necessity of both teams having great outside shooting numbers in such poor physical spot for them in order for this game to go Over the total posted, I see a lot of value on the Under and so, I'll be taking it in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 509/510 Under 203,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker