Sunday, March 17, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 03/17: New York Knicks @ Los Angeles Clippers

  
New York  at LA Clippers 
NBA - 875 New York Knicks @ 876 Los Angeles Clippers

Projected Line: LA Clippers by 16 points


The Knicks's offense without Carmelo Anthony struggles big time because they get very predictable. So, what will the Knicks do today without Carmelo? They'll run a lot of pick and rolls with Raymond Felton, they will run a lot of isolations with J.R. Smith and they'll shoot a lot of three pointers! This is what happened last Thursday night at Portland, where the Knicks had 21% volume on pick and roll ball handler plays and with nice numbers indeed: 9-16 FG and 1.14 PPP! They also shot 6-9 FG on pick and roll roll man plays. At the same time, they had 25% volume on spot ups, but they shot just 7-23 FG on this kind of plays. They will play today at LA against the Clippers and the LA team is #2 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with just 0.72 PPP allowed! Therefore, the Knicks's offense will definitely struggle today.

On defense, the Knicks have zero athleticism right now. Tyson Chandler is huge for the team, as he covers a lot of their defensive area, he is excellent on post up defense and he also helps his teammates a lot. Only that for example allows Carmelo Anthony to play at the PF position. However, without Chandler on court, the Knicks only have 40 years old Kurt Thomas, 38 years old Marcus Camby and a banged up 35 years old Kenyon Martin to play on the frontcourt today. If we add to this, the slow footed veterans Jason Kidd and Pablo Prigioni and bad defensive players like Raymond Felton and J.R. Smith, it's easy to understand that the Knicks's defense is going to be terrible today.

With the Knicks nursing so many injuries, they would struggle against any team today. But things will be even tougher against a top team that is an explosive athletic team. The Knicks got crushed at Denver and the Clippers will do the same thing to them, as they are coming from a home loss against Memphis and then, they had 3 days off to rest and prepare for today's game. I expect a clear blowout win for the Clippers today and so, I'll be taking them in here.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 876 Los Angeles Clippers (-12.5) @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes

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