Friday, March 22, 2013

NBA Free Premium Play 03/22: New York Knicks @ Toronto Raptors

  
New York  at Toronto 
NBA - 801 New York Knicks @ 802 Toronto Raptors

Projected Line: 188 points | Toronto by 3 points


The Knicks are coming from a nice home win over Orlando, however there's a lot to say about this game. The Magic were on a terrible spot, as they had played at Indiana the night before and they were also playing their third game in four nights. This was the last game of Orlando's road trip and their starters had all played more than 31 minutes against the Pacers the night before. To make things worse for them, Nikola Vucevic didn't play due to illness and the Magic had to play with a super undersized lineup with Arron Afflalo playing at the SF position, while Tobias Harris and Moe Harkless formed the team's frontcourt. Yes, that's two Small Forwards playing as the team's Center and Power Forward! But the most ridiculous fact was that Orlando still grabbed 55% of the total rebounds of the game, something that shows that the Knicks's rebounding is just catastrophic right now, as they grabbed just 47.72%, 44.88%, 37.88%, 50.11%, 43.97%, 40.32% and 44.74% of the rebounds on their last seven games! The NY team won the game mostly due to the Magic's terrible perimeter defense that allowed the Knicks to shoot 15-34 (44.1%) 3pts.

At the same time, Toronto was playing in Charlotte in a game where they showed no effort, as most of the Bobcats's opponents are doing nowadays. This is why Charlotte is 3-2 on their last 5 games! The Raptors showed no effort on defense and they got crushed on transitions and by the Bobcats's guards, who had good games. Charlotte used their backcourt quickness to attack the Raptors's defense, but that's something that the Knicks won't be able tonight, as speed is something that they don't have at all.
This is of course a game where the Raptors will be fired up and they are 2-0 this season against the NY team, with both games being quite physical contests. The funny fact is that Toronto was actually crushed on boards in both contests by grabbing just 38.72% and 43.61% of the total rebounds. 

However, the Knicks had Tyson Chandler in those games, a player that they will deeply miss tonight. Amare Stoudemire had a great game against Toronto earlier on the season and he is also out for tonight, while Carmelo Anthony is playing banged up. I see this contest being an ISO fest, but with the Raptors having a nice edge in terms of athleticism over the veteran Knicks. This will be especially visible on the matchup between Amir Johnson and Kenyon Martin. I believe the Knicks are being overrated on tonight's game, as this is the kind of game where Toronto gets their big game mentality, while the Knicks will be playing "just another game". These two teams will face each other once again tomorrow, this time at NYC, and things will be different there. But tonight, I expect Toronto to show bigger effort, hustle and athleticism than the veteran Knicks, three times that should allow them to pick up their third game against the Knicks this season. I also this contest to be played at a really slow pace, as the Raptors having been playing at a slow pace lately and the veteran Knicks have no plans of certainly inserting a fast pace on this contest neither. As both teams have been showing little offensive flow lately, I expect this contest to end up being a low scoring affair and therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here as well.

Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 801/802 Under 192 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 802 Toronto Raptors pk @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker

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