Denver's winning streak was always impressive, but it wasn't being taken serious by almost anybody. The biggest reason for that was the fact that they were playing most of their games at home, where they are close to unbeatable. However, their last two road wins were impressive, especially last night's win at Oklahoma City. So, the question of Denver winning the West isn't utopia right now.
It's very hard to stop Denver's transition game. Their opponents can slow them down early on the game, but as the game goes by, Denver's second unit just keeps the pace going and eventually, their opponents can't keep it up with the Nuggets. This can be a huge key for Denver in the playoffs, as their depth is their key and this will be relevant on a potential matchup with Oklahoma City or Memphis, where the Nuggets will have a clear depth edge, something that won't happen against San Antonio or the LA Clippers. Besides that, the other top teams in the West aren't elite transition defensive teams: San Antonio is #11, Oklahoma City #14, LA Clippers #17 and Memphis #7. Only the Grizzlies are in the top 10, something that helps us to understand why they were the only team in Denver's last 14 games that was able to stop the Nuggets's offense by allowing them less than 100 points. In fact, Denver has just scored less than 90 points three times this season and two of them were against Memphis! There is a lot of talk about Denver's main struggle on offense is their streaky outside shooting, but the truth is that their main problem is their poor free throw shooting, where they are #29 in the league with just 69.5% FG! However, they have been improving that since the All Star break and they were great yesterday with 24-29 (83%) FT! If the Nuggets manage to put their free throw efficiency around the mid-70%'s, that would help them big time.
But I believe the key for the Nuggets's great run has been their improvement on defense. Look at their defensive rating average month-by-month: November 108.4; December 105.3; January 106.3; February 109.8; March 100.1! They were averaging a defensive rating of 106.5 prior to the All Star break, while after the break they are averaging a 103.6 defensive rating! George Karl likes to put some weird lineups on court at times featuring Danilo Gallinari as Center or putting Andre Miller on court in key defensive possessions, but besides that, Denver's defense is building a good identity. In fact, having one of the best defensive players in the league in Andre Iguodala helps Coach Karl in building a defensive game plan around Iggy. It's a huge difference in having Ty Lawson and Andre Miller having to guard Russell Westbrook, Tony Parker and Chis Paul or having Andre Iguodala available to do this task. Wilson Chandler's breakthrough is also helping the team a lot, as he is another very versatile wing player who allowed Denver to make their rotations without losing efficiency. However, Denver's defense needs to be more discipline and spot gambling too much just to force turnovers. Last night, Oklahoma City was ice cold on their outside shooting with 4-25 3pts, but in a potential series against Oklahoma City or San Antonio, Denver will need to keep their eyes on the shooters because they still have the worst spot up defense in the league and that might burn them in the most important games of the season.
But if Denver is able to shoot better free throws on offense and be more disciplined on defense, then the Nuggets will definitely be a real threat on the West!
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