NBA - 701 Portland Trailblazers @ 702 Chicago Bulls
Projected Line: 184 points
***UPGRADED INTO A DOUBLE DIME PLAY***
NOTE: We just got enough edge to make it a Double Dime Play, with the line moving from 188 to 189,5 points!
Both teams are coming from a big effort on their last game, even though Chicago had 2 days off to rest prior to this contest. However, it's still not an easy spot for the Bulls tonight, as they played an overtime game against Denver, with two starters playing for more than 50 minutes on that game! On the other hand, Portland is playing their third game in four nights and on their last two games at Philadelphia and at Milwaukee, four of their starters played for over 40 minutes in both contests. With both teams coming from games where they've showed a lot of effort and due to their lack of depth on their rosters, I expect a low scoring game to happen tonight. One thing is having a team like Denver with depth on this kind of spot and another completely different thing is having teams like Chicago and Portland on this kind of spots, where they just can't be effective on offense.
Chicago's main defensive weakness is on transitions and they have been buried in several games this season because of that. However, Portland isn't the kind of team who will be able to take advantage of this defensive weakness from the Bulls, as the Blazers are just #26 in the league in fast break points per game with 9.8 points! Besides that, Portland has little volume on transition plays and they aren't effective on them as well by being #19 in the league with 1.11 PPP (Points Per Possession)! Therefore, I'm not seeing Portland wanting to run with the basketball tonight, as their starters wouldn't have legs in the second half due to their poor spot. The Blazers have a perimeter oriented offense and they are #5 in the league on 3pts volume of shots with 30% of their field goal attempts coming from behind the arc. The good news for them is that Portland is shooting well the ball from long range since the All Star break by being #6 in the league with 40.6% 3pts, while they have been even better on their last 10 games with 42.3% 3pts! However, Portland benefit from facing teams who are currently struggling on their perimeter defense. From their last seven opponents, San Antonio is #24 in the league since the All Star break on 3pts allowed with 39.6%, while New Orleans (#29 with 42.5% 3pts allowed), the NY Knicks (#25 with 39.9% 3pts allowed), Detroit (#30 with 43.0% allowed), Philadelphia (#19 with 37.9% allowed) and Milwaukee (#18 with 37.7% allowed) are also struggling on their perimeter defense right now. Memphis (#4 in the league with 31.9% 3pts allowed) was the only elite perimeter defense that they've faced lately and even though Portland scored 97 points against the Grizzlies, this was due to a bizarre 4th quarter where the Blazers scored 39 points, mostly thanks to the last minutes of the game that had several free throws. The truth is that the Blazers scored just 58 points on the first three quarters of that game, while shooting just 5-16 (31.3%) 3pts for the whole game. I expect Portland to struggle on their outside shooting tonight as well, as Chicago is #2 in the league in 3pts defense since the All Star break with 30.1% 3pts allowed! With the Bulls stopping Portland's perimeter game, it's up to LaMarcus Aldridge having a big game to compensate that, but not only he is currently banged up with a knee injury, as he will have a tough matchup as the Bulls are #3 in the league on post up defense with 0.77 PPP allowed.
On the other side, Chicago's offense has some volume on pick and rolls, but without great efficiency, as they really miss Derrick Rose on this game. Damian Lillard is a poor defender, but Chicago won't be able to fully explore that, as they really don't have offensive talent for that. The Bulls will have some edge on post ups with Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah, however I expect the Bulls to have an average overall offensive performance on this contest, something normal for them. Portland is #3 in the league since the All Star break on 3pts defense with 31.4% allowed and with the Bulls having little talent on offense, a likely poor outside shooting game and on a poor physical spot, I expect them to struggle offensively tonight. The Blazers's defense has been struggling against quick guards, as recently shown by Rodney Stuckey (11-23 FG and 32 points) and Monta Ellis/Brandon Jennings (combined of 17-38 FG and 45 points), but Chicago doesn't have them.
With both teams struggling on offense and with this game being a slow paced contest (as neither team likes to push up the tempo or is in a good physical spot to do it), I expect this contest to naturally become a low scoring game. Therefore, I'll be taking the Under in here. DOUBLE DIME PLAY!
Pick: 3 units on 701/702 Under 188 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
Pick: 1 units on 701/702 Under 189,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on 5Dimes
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