NBA Free Premium Play 03/29: Houston Rockets @ Memphis Grizzlies

Houston  at Memphis

NBA - 865 Houston Rockets @ 866 Memphis Grizzlies Projected Line: 198 points Memphis has been through some changes recently and that's mostly due to Jerryd Bayless's great form, who has helped his team big time in beating the Thunder and the Celtics. Thanks to that, Coach Hollins has been putting Jerryd Bayless and Mike Conley together on the backcourt, something that provokes some changes in the lineup, including Tayshaun Prince playing some minutes at the PF position. With these changes, the Grizzlies gain a lot of versatility on offense, but their defense regresses big time with these small lineups. Perhaps these small lineups won't be used that much today, especially if Coach Hollins puts Tony Allen on court major minutes in order to defend James Harden, but something that I'm sure it will happen tonight is Zach Randolph being fired up after two poor performances in a row. He has also denied that he had a rift with head coach Lionel Hollins, saying "our relationship is fine, I respect my coach." Randolph is coming off two terrible games where he's gone for a combined 13 points and 11 rebounds with a whopping nine turnovers, and he failed to play over 28.5 minutes in either one. Hollins said the only "beef" he had with Randolph was when he was late to shootaround recently, so owners have to hope this straightens out as early as Friday against the Rockets. "I'll work myself out of it. I'll just keep playing," he said. This situation is getting a considerable media exposure and so, Zach Randolph will be hungry to crush the Rockets tonight. This is a good spot for him to be fired up, as Houston doesn't have a PF that can guard Randolph at all. Donatas Motiejunas, Greg Smith and Thomas Robinson are all young talented players, but very raw on defense and Randolph will simply overpower them tonight. Houston is allowing 72% FG at the rim over their last 10 games and so, we will have a huge edge down low for Memphis tonight. Remember what Roy Hibbert (11-17 FG and 28 points) did to Houston last Wednesday night? The Rockets also seem to have a renewed focus for the rest of the season and that should start tonight: “We’re a little more read and react,” Coach Kevin McHale said. “It’s systemic to our team not moving the ball, not moving bodies enough, just being a little bit stagnant. Indiana puts you in positions, they do stymie you a little bit. We have to pick our pace back up. We have slowed back down some. This time of year, everybody is getting a little worn out, a little tired. We have to get our pace up.” On the other hand, Jeremy Lin’s minutes have been limited by Patrick Beverley’s strong play against San Antonio and Indiana, and by his team's blowout win over the Cavaliers. In the past three games, Lin averaged six points per game. In the previous three games he averaged 21.7 points. “I don’t play well without spacing and I don’t play well when we’re really not getting out in transition,” Lin said. “Those are two things we need to get better at, that coach has talked to us about, is pushing the ball more, having the wings run down all the way to the corners, having the bigs run to the post area and having me and Pat pushing the ball and trying to make something happen. We have to get back to that formula. It hurts me. It hurts everybody. We’re all figuring it out. I have to keep reminding myself to stay patient and see this as growth. There’s always going to be certain parts of growth you don’t like. You wish you could speed through the process, but it doesn’t work like that.” Memphis lost some of their defensive structure with their recent lineup changes and with also Marc Gasol's injury. Their perimeter defense was poor on their last three games with 9-20, 5-13 and 13-31 3pts, while allowing 18, 21 and 10 fast break points in those games as well. This is music for the Rockets's ears, who will pound the Grizzlies's defense tonight. The pace of the first two games played between these two teams this season was 91.07 and 94.37, so it seems that the Rockets were able to set their usual tempo on their games against the Grizzlies. Therefore, I expect the same to happen in here, with the Rockets having a good offensive game, while the Grizzlies should be also able to keep themselves competitive in here due to their improved offense. I believe this game will be a high scoring game and so, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 865/866 Over 194,5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker