Projected Line: 196 points
***TRIPLE DIME PLAY***
Indiana is coming from two nice wins on the road against top ranked offenses, in two games where they simply dominated both teams with their suffocating defense. On the other hand, the Pacers's offense was also decent on these two games with 100 and 103 points scored, while shooting well from the perimeter with 6-18 and 7-15 3pts! I believe Indiana is going to relax much more tonight on a game against the lowly Suns. Note that after today's game, Indiana will play against the LA Clippers and Oklahoma City, so it's normal that they will relax tonight and show a much lower defensive intensity than usual, especially when the Pacers's offense will have some huge edges over Phoenix's poor defense.
Now that David West is back, Indiana's frontcourt will crush the Suns's undersized frontcourt. Phoenix is now playing with Luis Scola and one of the Morris Brothers on the front and so, it isn't a surprise that they are allowing 72% FG at the rim! I expect Roy Hibbert and David West to have a field day. Of course, Phoenix will have to overhelp down low in order to protect the rim and they will leave Indiana's shooters alone on the outside. This has been Phoenix's biggest problem on defense this season and this is why they are dead last in the league with 39.5% 3pts allowed! Indiana's perimeter shooting has been streaky all season long, but they were decent on their last two games and so, they are carrying some rhythm on their shooting for tonight's game. Therefore, we will have Indiana's offense with nice edges in both inside and outside game tonight.
So, the main question in here is to know what Phoenix's offense will be able to do tonight. I've already referred that I don't think that Indiana will come to this game with a mindset of shutting down the Suns's offense tonight, as this is the easiest game of their six-game road trip and so, they will relax a bit tonight. Phoenix's offense has been been struggling due to their current lack of talent. However Coach Hunter is rotating their lineup a lot and so, they have always fresh players on the court throughout the whole game. Phoenix is playing on a fast pace lately and thanks to this new run and gun style, the Suns have score over 10 fast break points in all their last seven games, while averaging 16.9 fast break points per game during this span!
The key factor for tonight's game will be Goran Dragic. There has been a controversy due to the fact that Dragic didn't play the team's last two games even though he was healthy, on a decision made exclusively to make sure the Suns enter in tank mode. However, the rest of the Suns's roster showed solidarity with Dragic and the Slovene is probable to play tonight. We can expect a fresh Dragic to be ultra aggressive in tonight's game. The good news for him is that Indiana's defense is just "average" against pick and roll ball handler plays and this is where Dragic excels on his game, so this is a good opportunity for the Suns to have a decent offensive game against an elite defensive team. Considering all these factors, I expect this game to be a high scoring game and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here on a Triple Dime Play!
Pick: 5 units (Triple Dime Play) on 515/516 Over 187 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker
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