NBA Free Premium Play 03/20: Toronto Raptors @ Charlotte Bobcats

Toronto  at Charlotte

NBA - 603 Toronto Raptors @ 604 Charlotte Bobcats Projected Line: 199 points Charlotte is coming from a rare win against Washington, where their defense was still a mess even though they won the game. Washington shot 53% FG, including 9-16 FG from 16-23 feet and 6-15 3pts, but the Bobcats compensated that with a great offensive performance. Charlotte has a lot of volume on pick and rolls ball handlers and transitions and they were able to have a great offensive game in here thanks to Kemba Walker and Gerald Henderson, who were very efficient on these two kinds of plays. These two players shot a combined of 16-30 FG, while Ben Gordon also played well with 7-10 FG. Charlotte shot 7-13 FG on pick and roll ball handlers with a nice 0.89 PPP and 8-12 FG on transitions with 1.56 PPP! Washington was lazy on defense and their pick and roll ball handler is definitely regressing right now, as John Wall seems to be only focused on offense right now. The Bobcats will face Toronto tonight, so it's important to know what the Raptors's will be able to do on pick and roll ball handler defense and transition defense. Toronto is #5 in the league on pick and roll ball handler defense with 0.75 PPP allowed, but they are allowing 0.80 PPP since the All Star break and 0.87 PPP on their last five games! The same is happening with their transition defense, with 1.14 PPP allowed for the season, but with 1.20 PPP allowed since the All Star break. I took Toronto on their home game against Charlotte last week, on a game where the Bobcats scored just 10 points on the fourth quarter and with eight of these points coming from free throws. Charlotte was coming from a big win over Boston, while Toronto was coming from a big road loss against the same Celtics. Therefore, Toronto was on a back to back spot, so they put a lot of defensive pressure on Charlotte's offense, who was on a clear letdown mode on offense after such a big win over Boston. I believe the Bobcats will be much more aggressive tonight than they were at Toronto last week. They will also try to push up the tempo, just like they did it against Washington, as that improves their chances of scoring transition points. By the way, Charlotte has an average pace at home of 91.3, while they have an average road pace of just 89.3 on the road! With this game being played at a faster pace than last week and with Toronto struggling on pick and roll ball handler defense, Charlotte has a nice spot to have another decent offensive game. Toronto's offense struggles on half court due to their lack of offensive flow, but on a fast paced game, I like their offense due to their mobility. I expect this game to eventually become a high scoring contest between two teams with no playoffs aspirations and therefore, I'll be taking the Over in here. Pick: 3 units (Single Dime Play) on 603/604 Over 194.5 @ -110 / 1.91 on Bookmaker